#99Keytaon Thompson
Keytaon Thompson is a 3-year Slot Specialist WR for Mississippi State. Keytaon's 2017 season ranks in the 75th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 104 plays — a above-average rate for the WR. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.47Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.09Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.45Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Keytaon Thompson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
Recruiting Profile· Class of 2017
- Stars
- ★★★★★
- 247 composite
- 0.9289
- National rank
- #169
- High school
- Landry-Walker
- Hometown
- New Orleans, LA
Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.
2017 Production
Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs WR peers
- Efficiency75
- Volume52
- Explosiveness40
- Consistency41
- Pass-Down100
The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.
- ▸Above-average efficiency for the WR position (75th percentile).
- ▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.14 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 1.83 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Kentucky (SP+ 3).
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · EPA per play, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- -0.09
- Passing downs
- 0.54
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.01 / 0.30
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.