#9Kenneth Walker III

RB·Wake Forest·2021 20202.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Kenneth Walker III is a 2-year Explosive Back for Wake Forest. Kenneth's 2020 season ranks in the 45th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 117 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kenneth Walker III's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

579 Rush yards13 Rush TD119 Carries4.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

3 Receptions30 Rec yards0 Rec TD10.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs RB peers

Efficiency45
Volume66
Explosiveness38
Consistency72
Receiving10

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)45th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency72th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.12 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.48 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Campbell.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
2	vsClemson	L13-37	26.1	6	19	3.2	0	—	—	—	-0.15
3	@NC State	L42-45	0.0	27	131	4.9	3	1	7	0	0.12
5	vsCampbell	W66-14	—	11	105	9.5	1	—	—	—	0.48
7	vsVirginia	W40-23	0.9	23	128	5.6	3	—	—	—	0.19
8	vsVirginia Tech	W23-16	13.7	23	66	2.9	1	1	4	0	0.11
9	@Syracuse	W38-14	-9.8	16	79	4.9	3	—	—	—	0.41
11	@North Carolina	L53-59	18.0	13	51	3.9	2	1	19	0	0.29

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

23.1%

Passing plays

1.3%

Rushing plays

41.2%

Standard downs

28.1%

Passing downs

12.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.04
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.00 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2021 · 19 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Wake Forest	2.3	0.330	—	39.6
2021	Michigan State	4.6	0.370	+0.04	96.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.