#32Kairee Robinson

RB·San José State·20233.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Kairee Robinson is a Explosive Back for San José State. Kairee's 2023 season ranks in the 93th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 142 plays — a elite rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kairee Robinson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

1191 Rush yards18 Rush TD169 Carries7.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

17 Receptions198 Rec yards2 Rec TD11.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency93
Volume69
Explosiveness80
Consistency81
Receiving35

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)93th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.09 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.91 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Air Force (SP+ 6).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2015	228	0.450	5.8	102.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
0	@USC	L28-56	9.4	9	28	3.1	1	3	14	0	—
2	vsCal Poly	W59-3	—	16	124	7.8	2	—	—	—	0.70
3	@Toledo	L17-21	3.7	14	50	3.6	1	2	11	0	-0.07
4	vsAir Force	L20-45	5.9	7	82	11.7	2	1	7	0	0.91
6	@Boise State	L27-35	5.9	12	61	5.1	1	3	73	0	0.47
7	@New Mexico	W52-24	-16.5	15	126	8.4	3	2	63	1	0.68
8	vsUtah State	W42-21	-10.9	21	102	4.9	1	4	22	1	—
9	@Hawai'i	W35-0	-16.4	17	146	8.6	2	1	7	0	0.24
11	vsFresno State	W42-18	2.5	19	200	10.5	2	—	—	—	0.81
12	vsSan Diego State	W24-13	-10.3	11	40	3.6	1	—	—	—	0.12
13	@UNLV	W37-31	1.4	16	165	10.3	2	—	—	—	0.60
20	vsCoastal Carolina	L14-24	-1.2	12	67	5.6	0	1	1	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

24.2%

Passing plays

4.7%

Rushing plays

42.9%

Standard downs

30.2%

Passing downs

12.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.61
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / 0.30

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.