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Josh Kelly
Josh Kelly

#3Josh Kelly

WR·Washington State·2023

Josh Kelly is a Versatile WR for Washington State. Josh's 2023 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 73 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Josh Kelly's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving
61 Receptions923 Rec yards8 Rec TD15.1 Yards/rec
Returns
1 Kick returns8 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume25
  • Explosiveness54
  • Consistency80
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸11 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.31 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Oregon State (SP+ 13).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.310−2.31Wk 1 vs Colorado State: +1.08 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Wisconsin: +0.40 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Northern Colorado: +0.94 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Oregon State: +2.31 EPA/play4Wk 6 vs UCLA: +0.75 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Arizona: +1.24 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Oregon: -0.11 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Arizona State: +0.45 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Stanford: +2.17 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs California: +0.80 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Colorado: +2.06 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Washington: +1.07 EPA/play13
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1@Colorado StateW50-24-8.979713.91251.08
2vsWisconsinW31-229.4166.0060.40
3vsNorthern ColoradoW64-21—57414.81320.94
4vsOregon StateW38-3512.6815919.93442.31
6@UCLAL17-259.75408.00140.75
7vsArizonaL6-4414.1199.0091.24
8@OregonL24-3826.25489.6027-0.11
9@Arizona StateL27-38-11.324221.00280.45
10vsStanfordL7-10-11.948220.51392.17
11@CaliforniaL39-42-0.1913014.41210.80
12vsColoradoW56-14-4.9613021.70512.06
13@WashingtonL21-2416.4810613.31211.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
8.8%
Passing plays
13.8%
Rushing plays
0.3%
Standard downs
8.9%
Passing downs
8.6%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.66
Passing downs
1.89
Pass / Rush EPA
1.06 / -0.33

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.