#8Jordan Howard

RB·Indiana·2015 20143.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Jordan Howard is a 2-year Featured Back for Indiana. Jordan's 2015 season ranks in the 68th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 210 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jordan Howard's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

1213 Rush yards9 Rush TD196 Carries6.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

11 Receptions106 Rec yards1 Rec TD9.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency68
Volume82
Explosiveness64
Consistency78
Receiving34

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)68th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.56 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Michigan (SP+ 20).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouthern Illinois	W48-47	—	20	145	7.3	3	2	25	0	0.49
2	vsFlorida International	W36-22	-16.6	27	159	5.9	0	1	5	0	0.22
3	vsWestern Kentucky	W38-35	10.8	31	203	6.5	0	3	38	0	0.29
4	@Wake Forest	W31-24	-4.5	33	168	5.1	1	—	—	—	0.29
5	vsOhio State	L27-34	29.5	14	34	2.4	0	2	16	0	-0.16
8	@Michigan State	L26-52	15.6	11	78	7.1	1	—	—	—	0.14
10	vsIowa	L27-35	9.3	22	174	7.9	2	2	15	0	0.52
11	vsMichigan	L41-48	19.7	35	238	6.8	2	1	7	1	0.56
12	@Maryland	W47-28	-1.6	3	14	4.7	0	—	—	—	0.25

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

28.8%

Passing plays

5.4%

Rushing plays

47.0%

Standard downs

33.9%

Passing downs

18.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.54
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / 0.33

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 20 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	UAB	3.7	0.280	—	76.7
2015	Indiana	3.5	0.370	+0.09	67.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.