#6Jalen Buckley

RB·Western Michigan·20233.2 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Jalen Buckley is a Featured Back for Western Michigan. Jalen's 2023 season ranks in the 70th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 201 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jalen Buckley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

997 Rush yards10 Rush TD189 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

18 Receptions161 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency70
Volume78
Explosiveness46
Consistency69
Receiving49

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)70th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency69th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.42 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Ohio (SP+ -2).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSt. Francis (PA)	W35-17	—	30	194	6.5	1	1	4	0	0.34
2	@Syracuse	L7-48	-4.4	8	87	10.9	1	—	—	—	0.41
3	@Iowa	L10-41	5.8	14	30	2.1	0	—	—	—	-0.18
4	@Toledo	L31-49	3.7	29	190	6.6	2	—	—	—	0.32
5	vsBall State	W42-24	-14.9	13	50	3.8	1	3	11	0	0.11
7	vsMiami (OH)	L21-34	2.8	14	61	4.4	0	4	47	0	0.16
8	@Ohio	L17-20	-1.6	6	19	3.2	0	4	59	0	0.42
9	@Eastern Michigan	W45-21	-12.3	25	138	5.5	2	1	8	0	0.31
11	vsCentral Michigan	W38-28	-19.1	23	117	5.1	2	2	10	0	0.23
12	@Northern Illinois	L0-24	-7.5	9	26	2.9	0	1	7	0	-0.20
13	vsBowling Green	L10-34	-7.8	18	85	4.7	1	2	15	0	0.31

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

27.2%

Passing plays

7.4%

Rushing plays

44.8%

Standard downs

31.6%

Passing downs

17.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.39
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.21 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.