#13Jack Plummer

QB·Louisville·20235.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jack Plummer is a Clutch Passer for Louisville. Jack's 2023 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 469 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jack Plummer's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

256/395 Comp/Att3204 Pass yards21 Pass TD12 INT64.8% Comp %

Rushing

34 Rush yards1 Rush TD98 Carries0.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency20
Volume100
Dual-Threat37
Consistency72
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency72th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.18 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.14 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Boston College (SP+ -6).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsGeorgia Tech	W39-34	0.3	18/31	247	3	1	66.1	51	0	0.48
2	vsMurray State	W56-0	—	16/22	247	1	2	58.3	5	0	0.69
3	vsIndiana	W21-14	-7.4	13/23	238	1	1	88.0	42	0	0.64
4	vsBoston College	W56-28	-5.9	18/21	388	5	0	94.0	2	1	1.14
5	@NC State	W13-10	7.4	21/35	286	1	2	36.5	-21	0	0.05
6	vsNotre Dame	W33-20	20.1	17/24	145	1	0	70.7	-12	0	0.22
7	@Pittsburgh	L21-38	-7.3	29/52	350	1	2	35.7	-47	0	0.15
9	vsDuke	W23-0	9.4	11/16	117	0	0	80.3	-2	0	0.09
10	vsVirginia Tech	W34-3	5.8	11/12	141	1	0	88.5	18	0	0.93
11	vsVirginia	W31-24	-10.8	19/28	243	2	1	47.8	-6	0	0.12
12	@Miami	W38-31	9.6	24/37	308	3	1	92.0	11	0	0.59
13	vsKentucky	L31-38	10.5	24/33	242	2	1	77.7	19	0	0.34
14	vsFlorida State	L6-16	19.4	14/36	111	0	1	13.1	-32	0	-0.27
20	vsUSC	L28-42	9.4	21/25	141	0	0	57.5	6	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.6%

Passing plays

96.7%

Rushing plays

13.3%

Standard downs

44.0%

Passing downs

73.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.60
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.35 / 0.08

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.