#25Ito Smith

RB·Southern Miss·2017 20162.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Ito Smith is a 2-year Featured Back for Southern Miss. Ito's 2017 season ranks in the 18th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 291 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ito Smith's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Rushing

1413 Rush yards13 Rush TD248 Carries5.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

40 Receptions396 Rec yards2 Rec TD9.9 Yards/rec

Returns

6 Kick returns109 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency18
Volume91
Explosiveness54
Consistency63
Receiving68

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)18th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency63th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.72 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Charlotte (SP+ -26).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsKentucky	L17-24	2.7	16	37	2.3	0	9	78	0	-0.18
2	vsSouthern	W45-0	—	17	77	4.5	1	2	18	0	-0.04
3	@UL Monroe	W28-17	-12.9	27	219	8.1	1	3	13	0	0.24
5	vsNorth Texas	L28-43	-4.5	13	102	7.8	2	2	47	0	0.48
6	@UTSA	W31-29	-2.5	17	178	10.5	1	2	12	0	0.31
7	vsUTEP	W24-0	-27.4	28	120	4.3	2	3	24	0	0.24
8	@Louisiana Tech	W34-27	-5.5	14	48	3.4	0	3	40	1	0.18
9	vsUAB	L12-30	—	12	36	3.0	0	3	93	1	0.15
10	@Tennessee	L10-24	1.2	20	51	2.5	0	2	11	0	-0.16
11	@Rice	W43-34	-23.6	24	150	6.3	2	3	23	0	0.46
12	vsCharlotte	W66-21	-26.1	15	153	10.2	3	1	-1	0	0.72
13	@Marshall	W28-27	-4.5	29	150	5.2	1	3	12	0	0.11
1	vsFlorida State	L13-42	22.8	16	92	5.8	0	4	26	0	0.11

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.9%

Passing plays

12.0%

Rushing plays

51.2%

Standard downs

35.1%

Passing downs

25.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.26
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.28 / 0.16

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Southern Miss	1.9	0.240	—	65.5
2017	Southern Miss	2.4	0.260	+0.02	62.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.