#21Ismail Mahdi

RB·Texas State·2025 20232.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Ismail Mahdi is a 2-year Featured Back for Texas State. Ismail's 2023 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 240 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ismail Mahdi's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

1331 Rush yards10 Rush TD223 Carries6.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

20 Receptions275 Rec yards1 Rec TD13.8 Yards/rec

Returns

22 Kick returns563 KR yards1 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency13
Volume74
Explosiveness60
Consistency62
Receiving39

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency62th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.58 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.55 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Jackson State.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Baylor	W42-31	-8.3	6	83	13.8	1	1	10	1	1.17
2	@UTSA	L13-20	5.4	6	23	3.8	0	—	—	—	-0.06
3	vsJackson State	W77-34	—	3	77	25.7	1	1	27	0	1.55
4	vsNevada	W35-24	-22.0	21	216	10.3	2	2	40	0	0.77
5	@Southern Miss	W50-36	-14.4	14	89	6.4	3	1	89	0	0.30
6	@Louisiana	L30-34	0.4	34	188	5.5	1	1	9	0	0.32
7	vsUL Monroe	W21-20	-21.6	14	50	3.6	0	1	8	0	0.06
9	vsTroy	L13-31	9.8	20	128	6.4	0	4	32	0	-0.02
10	vsGeorgia Southern	W45-24	-5.2	20	99	5.0	0	—	—	—	0.12
11	@Coastal Carolina	L23-31	-1.2	21	97	4.6	0	1	4	0	0.04
12	@Arkansas State	L31-77	-6.3	17	62	3.6	1	5	30	0	0.14
13	vsSouth Alabama	W52-44	5.1	23	97	4.2	1	1	27	0	0.20
20	vsRice	W45-21	-10.2	24	122	5.1	0	2	-1	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

25.8%

Passing plays

5.6%

Rushing plays

44.0%

Standard downs

30.5%

Passing downs

15.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.55
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.42 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 — 2025 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2023	Texas State	2.4	0.250	—	56.8
2025	Arizona	1.8	0.250	—	31.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.