#21Harrison Waylee

RB·Virginia·2025

Harrison Waylee is a Committee Back for Virginia. Harrison's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 117 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Harrison Waylee's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

556 Rush yards6 Rush TD118 Carries4.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

9 Receptions39 Rec yards0 Rec TD4.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume39
Explosiveness34
Consistency0
Receiving41

Player type

Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.08 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.33 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs William & Mary.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsCoastal Carolina	W48-7	-15.1	7	18	2.6	1	—	—	—	0.30
3	vsWilliam & Mary	W55-16	—	10	151	15.1	3	—	—	—	1.33
4	vsStanford	W48-20	-11.8	9	45	5.0	0	1	2	0	-0.05
5	vsFlorida State	W46-38	7.2	4	15	3.8	0	—	—	—	-0.14
6	@Louisville	W30-27	12.4	2	-6	-3.0	0	—	—	—	-1.26
8	vsWashington State	W22-20	3.8	4	30	7.5	1	—	—	—	0.48
9	@North Carolina	W17-16	-6.6	3	12	4.0	0	1	5	0	0.17
10	@California	W31-21	-3.2	14	39	2.8	0	1	5	0	0.05
11	vsWake Forest	L9-16	5.7	3	10	3.3	0	—	—	—	0.47
12	@Duke	W34-17	6.6	16	62	3.9	0	1	7	0	0.04
14	vsVirginia Tech	W27-7	-10.1	15	46	3.1	0	—	—	—	-0.45
15	vsDuke	L20-27	6.6	11	66	6.0	0	2	8	0	0.03
20	vsMissouri	W13-7	14.4	20	68	3.4	1	3	12	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

13.6%

Passing plays

3.1%

Rushing plays

23.6%

Standard downs

14.3%

Passing downs

11.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: -0.05
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.14 / 0.10

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).