#17Hardley Gilmore IV

WR·Kentucky·2025

Hardley Gilmore IV is a Slot Specialist WR for Kentucky. Hardley's 2025 season produced 11.5 total EPA across 40 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Hardley Gilmore IV's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

28 Receptions313 Rec yards1 Rec TD11.2 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns26 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume17
Explosiveness28
Consistency31
Pass-Down62

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency31th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.20 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.98 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Tennessee Tech.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2020	39	0.320	0.4	12.5
Nick Nash	San José State	2021	45	0.310	0.5	14.0
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Ainias Smith	Texas A&M	2020	55	0.310	0.5	17.0
Cade Harris	Air Force	2024	45	0.330	0.5	14.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsToledo	W24-16	6.0	2	-5	-2.5	0	0	-0.50
2	vsOle Miss	L23-30	24.0	2	54	27.0	0	38	0.10
3	vsEastern Michigan	W48-23	-14.7	2	48	24.0	0	32	0.26
5	@South Carolina	L13-35	5.9	—	—	—	—	—	-0.75
6	@Georgia	L14-35	24.1	3	24	8.0	0	15	0.90
8	vsTexas	L13-16	16.2	4	34	8.5	0	11	0.87
9	vsTennessee	L34-56	15.0	3	0	0.0	0	7	-0.39
10	@Auburn	W10-3	11.6	1	7	7.0	0	7	-0.17
11	vsFlorida	W38-7	3.5	2	9	4.5	0	8	0.29
12	vsTennessee Tech	W42-10	—	2	61	30.5	1	45	0.98
13	@Vanderbilt	L17-45	20.3	6	55	9.2	0	15	0.72
14	@Louisville	L0-41	12.4	1	26	26.0	0	26	0.65

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

5.8%

Passing plays

11.7%

Rushing plays

0.5%

Standard downs

4.1%

Passing downs

9.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.32
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / -0.42

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).