#24Fluff Bothwell

RB·Mississippi State·2025

Fluff Bothwell is a Committee Back for Mississippi State. Fluff's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 159 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Fluff Bothwell's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

677 Rush yards6 Rush TD142 Carries4.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

14 Receptions105 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume60
Explosiveness36
Consistency41
Receiving56

Player type

Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency41th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.59 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.91 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Alcorn State.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Southern Miss	W34-17	-7.1	10	43	4.3	2	—	—	—	0.61
2	vsArizona State	W24-20	3.9	8	34	4.3	0	1	5	0	0.26
3	vsAlcorn State	W63-0	—	12	93	7.8	2	1	14	0	0.91
4	vsNorthern Illinois	W38-10	-16.7	17	101	5.9	0	2	10	0	0.24
5	vsTennessee	L34-41	15.0	23	134	5.8	2	1	2	0	0.32
6	@Texas A&M	L9-31	20.7	14	60	4.3	0	2	6	0	-0.08
10	@Arkansas	W38-35	5.1	12	25	2.1	0	1	39	0	-0.14
11	vsGeorgia	L21-41	24.1	9	44	4.9	0	1	2	0	-0.28
12	@Missouri	L27-49	14.4	6	25	4.2	0	2	10	0	0.02
14	vsOle Miss	L19-38	24.0	17	80	4.7	0	2	11	0	-0.09
20	vsWake Forest	L29-43	5.7	14	38	2.7	0	1	6	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

21.0%

Passing plays

6.5%

Rushing plays

32.6%

Standard downs

24.7%

Passing downs

14.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.10
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.01 / 0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).