#17Ethan Grunkemeyer

QB·Penn State·2025

Ethan Grunkemeyer is a Clutch Passer for Penn State. Ethan's 2025 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 188 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ethan Grunkemeyer's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

123/178 Comp/Att1339 Pass yards8 Pass TD4 INT69.1% Comp %

Rushing

-46 Rush yards1 Rush TD35 Carries-1.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency8
Volume96
Dual-Threat6
Consistency76
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.12 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.00 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Villanova.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNevada	W46-11	-13.4	7/9	86	0	0	88.7	8	1	0.53
3	vsVillanova	W52-6	—	1/2	19	1	0	93.5	—	—	1.00
7	vsNorthwestern	L21-22	5.8	—	—	—	—	—	0	0	-0.02
8	@Iowa	L24-25	19.7	15/28	93	0	2	45.1	1	0	0.10
10	@Ohio State	L14-38	30.1	19/28	145	0	1	82.3	-39	0	0.09
11	vsIndiana	L24-27	32.4	22/31	219	1	1	78.6	-2	0	0.34
12	@Michigan State	W28-10	-3.4	8/13	127	2	0	51.3	6	0	0.27
13	vsNebraska	W37-10	6.2	11/12	181	1	0	97.5	2	0	0.66
14	@Rutgers	W40-36	1.0	17/21	209	1	0	82.4	-11	0	0.58
20	vsClemson	W22-10	9.5	23/34	260	2	0	79.4	-11	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

33.5%

Passing plays

73.3%

Rushing plays

6.2%

Standard downs

29.3%

Passing downs

45.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.50
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / -0.07

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).