#9Elijah Metcalf

WR·Southern Miss·2025

Elijah Metcalf is a Versatile WR for Southern Miss. Elijah's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 79 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Elijah Metcalf's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

54 Receptions683 Rec yards2 Rec TD12.6 Yards/rec

Returns

10 Punt returns93 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume27
Explosiveness38
Consistency67
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency67th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.43 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.70 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Arkansas State (SP+ -9).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
Zach Abey	Navy	2016	70	0.370	0.8	25.9
Dane Kinamon	Air Force	2021	39	0.410	0.7	16.0
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsMississippi State	L17-34	4.1	2	13	6.5	0	12	-0.30
2	vsJackson State	W38-20	—	5	45	9.0	0	11	0.84
3	vsApp State	W38-22	-11.4	3	66	22.0	0	48	0.91
4	@Louisiana Tech	L20-30	-1.3	2	29	14.5	0	24	-0.02
5	vsJacksonville State	W42-25	-6.7	2	-9	-4.5	0	0	0.07
7	@Georgia Southern	W38-35	-9.4	4	62	15.5	0	30	0.41
8	@Louisiana	W22-10	-10.1	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	vsUL Monroe	W49-21	-21.6	7	76	10.9	0	30	0.77
11	@Arkansas State	W27-21	-8.8	5	143	28.6	1	76	1.70
12	vsTexas State	L14-41	2.3	10	116	11.6	1	34	0.92
13	@South Alabama	L35-42	-12.7	6	74	12.3	0	32	0.53
14	vsTroy	L18-28	-4.8	6	62	10.3	0	26	-0.15
20	vsWestern Kentucky	L16-27	1.6	2	6	3.0	0	7	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

9.6%

Passing plays

17.6%

Rushing plays

1.0%

Standard downs

9.7%

Passing downs

9.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.76
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.47 / 0.04

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).