#12Donnie Gray

WR·Massachusetts·2025

Donnie Gray is a Versatile WR for Massachusetts. Donnie's 2025 season produced 10.6 total EPA across 43 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Donnie Gray's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

27 Receptions260 Rec yards0 Rec TD9.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume21
Explosiveness18
Consistency52
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency52th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.77 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.62 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Bryant.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0
Amare Jones	Tulane	2019	58	0.230	0.8	13.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Long	EPA/play
1	vsTemple	L10-42	-5.1	1	5	5.0	5	1.49
2	vsBryant	L26-27	—	2	55	27.5	41	1.62
3	@Iowa	L7-47	19.7	2	27	13.5	22	1.05
5	@Missouri	L6-42	14.4	2	28	14.0	15	0.40
6	vsWestern Michigan	L3-21	-1.4	1	8	8.0	8	-0.56
7	@Kent State	L6-42	-19.3	6	60	10.0	19	0.55
8	vsBuffalo	L21-28	-7.5	1	2	2.0	2	-0.10
9	@Central Michigan	L13-38	-8.8	1	7	7.0	7	-0.04
11	@Akron	L10-44	-13.9	1	3	3.0	3	-0.34
12	vsNorthern Illinois	L3-45	-16.7	7	41	5.9	13	0.29
14	vsBowling Green	L14-45	-12.6	3	24	8.0	12	0.32

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

7.2%

Passing plays

11.8%

Rushing plays

1.2%

Standard downs

6.5%

Passing downs

8.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.06
Passing downs: 0.57
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.22 / 0.47

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).