#21Dominic Richardson

RB·Tulsa·2025

Dominic Richardson is a Featured Back for Tulsa. Dominic's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 238 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dominic Richardson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

1065 Rush yards5 Rush TD212 Carries5.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

20 Receptions130 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume83
Explosiveness40
Consistency30
Receiving50

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency30th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Peak game: 0.43 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Army (SP+ 1).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	EPA/play
1	vsAbilene Christian	W35-7	—	20	142	7.1	1	1	6	0.27
2	@New Mexico State	L14-21	-15.5	20	93	4.7	0	3	20	-0.02
3	vsNavy	L23-42	6.2	13	61	4.7	1	1	2	-0.08
4	@Oklahoma State	W19-12	-15.1	31	146	4.7	0	3	11	0.02
5	vsTulane	L14-31	6.3	14	48	3.4	0	3	19	0.21
6	@Memphis	L7-45	7.6	14	48	3.4	0	2	20	-0.13
8	@East Carolina	L27-41	8.0	17	59	3.5	0	1	3	-0.05
9	vsTemple	L37-38	-5.1	19	78	4.1	1	2	8	0.05
11	@Florida Atlantic	L21-40	-8.7	9	21	2.3	0	2	13	-0.07
12	vsOregon State	W31-14	-15.9	27	166	6.1	1	1	6	0.15
13	@Army	W26-25	0.8	28	203	7.3	1	1	22	0.43

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

28.9%

Passing plays

7.9%

Rushing plays

49.7%

Standard downs

32.0%

Passing downs

22.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.04
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.02 / 0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).