#13Devin Leary

QB·Kentucky·2023 2021

Devin Leary is a Dual-Threat QB for Kentucky. Devin's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 383 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Devin Leary's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

209/371 Comp/Att2746 Pass yards25 Pass TD12 INT56.3% Comp %

Rushing

-60 Rush yards1 Rush TD42 Carries-1.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat59
Consistency76
Clutch54

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.66 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Akron (SP+ -22).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsBall State	W44-14	-14.9	18/31	241	1	1	45.1	-8	0	0.24
2	vsEastern Kentucky	W28-17	—	24/38	299	4	1	33.7	-12	0	0.41
3	vsAkron	W35-3	-21.6	16/25	315	3	1	87.5	-12	0	0.66
4	@Vanderbilt	W45-28	-12.7	15/29	205	1	2	28.4	12	0	0.40
5	vsFlorida	W33-14	6.8	9/19	69	1	0	40.9	—	—	0.24
6	@Georgia	L13-51	31.2	10/26	128	2	0	61.8	-28	0	0.01
7	vsMissouri	L21-38	19.3	14/27	120	2	2	49.2	3	1	-0.00
9	vsTennessee	L27-33	16.2	28/39	372	2	0	84.4	21	0	0.56
10	@Mississippi State	W24-3	0.5	13/22	156	2	0	77.3	2	0	0.37
11	vsAlabama	L21-49	23.1	17/31	158	1	1	61.7	-18	0	-0.09
12	@South Carolina	L14-17	4.3	17/34	171	1	1	44.0	8	0	0.15
13	@Louisville	W38-31	8.0	12/22	206	3	1	85.4	-23	0	0.38
20	vsClemson	L35-38	10.5	16/28	306	2	2	84.5	-5	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

56.4%

Passing plays

99.0%

Rushing plays

6.6%

Standard downs

46.9%

Passing downs

74.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.36
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.