#1Deuce Alexander

WR·Ole Miss·2025

Deuce Alexander is a Versatile WR for Ole Miss. Deuce's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 75 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Deuce Alexander's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

122 Rush yards0 Rush TD19 Carries6.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

44 Receptions684 Rec yards2 Rec TD15.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume21
Explosiveness57
Consistency60
Pass-Down36

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency60th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.56 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.61 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs South Carolina (SP+ 6).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Eli Heidenreich	Navy	2024	66	0.340	0.7	22.4
Zach Abey	Navy	2016	70	0.370	0.8	25.9
Chris Tyree	Notre Dame	2020	76	0.310	0.6	23.6
Noah Short	Army	2024	69	0.300	0.5	20.7
Ainias Smith	Texas A&M	2020	55	0.310	0.5	17.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsGeorgia State	W63-7	-24.5	2	17	8.5	0	9	0.67
2	@Kentucky	W30-23	1.8	4	68	17.0	0	30	0.64
3	vsArkansas	W41-35	5.1	4	70	17.5	0	35	1.33
4	vsTulane	W45-10	6.3	4	94	23.5	1	35	1.32
5	vsLSU	W24-19	10.3	3	64	21.3	0	25	0.53
7	vsWashington State	W24-21	3.8	3	36	12.0	0	18	0.34
8	@Georgia	L35-43	24.1	2	33	16.5	0	32	0.37
9	@Oklahoma	W34-26	18.3	3	12	4.0	0	6	-0.08
10	vsSouth Carolina	W30-14	5.9	2	52	26.0	0	43	1.61
11	vsThe Citadel	W49-0	—	3	21	7.0	0	11	-0.36
12	vsFlorida	W34-24	3.5	2	16	8.0	0	9	0.12
14	@Mississippi State	W38-19	4.1	2	94	47.0	1	88	-0.64
20	vsGeorgia	W39-34	24.1	2	13	6.5	0	7	—
20	vsMiami	L27-31	20.7	1	7	7.0	0	7	—
20	vsTulane	W41-10	6.3	7	87	12.4	0	26	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

7.2%

Passing plays

11.4%

Rushing plays

3.4%

Standard downs

6.5%

Passing downs

9.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.39
Passing downs: 0.31
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).