#44Dean Connors

RB·Rice·2024

Dean Connors is a Pass-Catching Back for Rice. Dean's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 201 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dean Connors's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

780 Rush yards9 Rush TD159 Carries4.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

61 Receptions472 Rec yards2 Rec TD7.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume79
Explosiveness38
Consistency36
Receiving77

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency36th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.60 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.22 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Texas Southern.

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSam Houston	L14-34	-6.9	12	52	4.3	1	9	30	0	0.31
2	vsTexas Southern	W69-7	—	9	113	12.6	3	4	34	0	1.22
3	@Houston	L7-33	-8.2	11	32	2.9	1	5	17	0	-0.06
4	@Army	L14-37	9.2	9	51	5.7	0	8	31	0	0.18
5	vsCharlotte	L20-21	-15.3	14	121	8.6	0	2	14	0	0.32
7	vsUTSA	W29-27	2.2	8	27	3.4	1	5	109	1	1.17
8	@Tulane	L10-24	5.7	11	76	6.9	0	7	34	0	-0.15
9	@UConn	L10-17	1.5	20	46	2.3	0	4	13	0	-0.39
10	vsNavy	W24-10	3.5	18	105	5.8	2	4	34	0	0.24
11	@Memphis	L20-27	9.6	14	55	3.9	0	6	22	0	0.01
13	@UAB	L14-40	-11.3	16	62	3.9	1	3	43	0	-0.19
14	vsSouth Florida	W35-28	-2.3	17	40	2.4	0	4	91	1	0.02

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

27.8%

Passing plays

11.8%

Rushing plays

54.1%

Standard downs

33.3%

Passing downs

18.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.31
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.49 / 0.07

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).