#18Dane Key

WR·Nebraska·2025

Dane Key is a Versatile WR for Nebraska. Dane's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 59 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dane Key's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

39 Receptions452 Rec yards5 Rec TD11.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume22
Explosiveness31
Consistency62
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency62th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.62 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.67 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Cincinnati (SP+ 5).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Micah Davis	Air Force	2021	44	0.370	0.6	16.3
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2021	41	0.370	0.6	15.2
Dane Kinamon	Air Force	2021	39	0.410	0.7	16.0
Zach Abey	Navy	2016	70	0.370	0.8	25.9
JoJo Natson	Utah State	2014	51	0.390	1.0	19.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsCincinnati	W20-17	4.5	6	51	8.5	1	15	1.67
2	vsAkron	W68-0	-13.9	3	35	11.7	1	18	0.17
3	vsHouston Christian	W59-7	—	4	104	26.0	1	40	0.95
4	vsMichigan	L27-30	12.4	3	36	12.0	0	21	0.46
7	@Maryland	W34-31	0.6	4	43	10.8	1	19	0.59
9	vsNorthwestern	W28-21	5.8	3	22	7.3	0	13	0.01
10	vsUSC	L17-21	16.9	2	23	11.5	1	14	-0.20
11	@UCLA	W28-21	-8.7	3	46	15.3	0	29	0.71
13	@Penn State	L10-37	18.1	4	48	12.0	0	19	0.40
14	vsIowa	L16-40	19.7	3	16	5.3	0	6	-0.34
20	vsUtah	L22-44	22.2	4	28	7.0	0	9	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

7.8%

Passing plays

16.2%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

7.0%

Passing downs

10.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.11
Passing downs: 0.92
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).