#9Cole Payton

QB·North Dakota State·2025

Cole Payton is a Dual-Threat QB for North Dakota State. Cole's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 359 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Cole Payton's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

162/225 Comp/Att2719 Pass yards16 Pass TD4 INT72.0% Comp %

Rushing

777 Rush yards13 Rush TD136 Carries5.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency100
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency83
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸10 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.32 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.45 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs St. Thomas (MN).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@The Citadel	W38-0	—	11/17	192	1	0	101	0	0.63
2	@Tennessee State	W59-3	—	13/16	166	1	0	21	0	0.47
3	vsSoutheast Missouri State	W41-14	—	16/23	348	4	0	53	1	0.97
5	vsSouth Dakota	W51-13	—	14/18	273	2	0	102	1	1.07
6	@Illinois State	W33-16	—	12/14	194	1	0	79	1	0.71
7	vsSouthern Illinois	W45-17	—	13/16	243	1	0	48	2	1.21
8	@Indiana State	W38-7	—	12/18	149	1	1	71	1	0.64
9	@South Dakota State	W38-7	—	18/23	243	0	1	137	4	0.66
10	vsYoungstown State	W38-30	—	17/24	194	0	1	28	0	0.21
11	@North Dakota	W15-10	—	8/15	125	0	1	68	1	0.23
12	vsNorthern Iowa	W48-16	—	15/17	212	1	0	74	2	0.52
13	vsSt. Thomas (MN)	W62-7	—	9/12	279	3	0	9	0	1.45
15	vsIllinois State	L28-29	—	4/12	101	1	0	-14	0	0.05

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

43.0%

Passing plays

84.0%

Rushing plays

21.2%

Standard downs

37.3%

Passing downs

58.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.49
Passing downs: 0.89
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.65 / 0.66

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).