#7CJ Verdell

RB·Oregon·20192.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

CJ Verdell is a Explosive Back for Oregon. CJ's 2019 season ranks in the 40th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 210 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So CJ Verdell's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1220 Rush yards8 Rush TD197 Carries6.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

14 Receptions125 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency40
Volume64
Explosiveness64
Consistency22
Receiving31

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)40th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency22th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.81 EPA/play in Wk 15 vs Utah (SP+ 20).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsAuburn	L21-27	21.0	14	76	5.4	1	2	4	0	-0.03
2	vsNevada	W77-6	-12.3	11	60	5.5	1	—	—	—	0.33
3	vsMontana	W35-3	—	5	13	2.6	0	1	21	0	0.40
4	@Stanford	W21-6	-4.7	24	82	3.4	0	—	—	—	-0.18
6	vsCalifornia	W17-7	-2.6	10	46	4.6	0	2	17	0	0.32
7	vsColorado	W45-3	-4.1	14	171	12.2	0	2	8	0	0.30
8	@Washington	W35-31	18.3	11	48	4.4	0	2	12	0	0.03
9	vsWashington State	W37-35	11.1	23	257	11.2	3	4	56	0	0.79
10	@USC	W56-24	13.1	6	12	2.0	0	0	4	0	-0.29
12	vsArizona	W34-6	-8.0	11	49	4.5	0	—	—	—	-0.05
13	@Arizona State	L28-31	6.3	18	99	5.5	0	—	—	—	0.07
14	vsOregon State	W24-10	-0.7	15	50	3.3	0	1	3	0	-0.19
15	vsUtah	W37-15	19.5	18	208	11.6	3	—	—	—	0.81
1	vsWisconsin	W28-27	20.3	17	49	2.9	0	—	—	—	-0.39

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

22.3%

Passing plays

3.8%

Rushing plays

40.5%

Standard downs

25.9%

Passing downs

13.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.10
Passing downs: 0.36
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.23 / 0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.