#1CJ Marable

RB·Coastal Carolina·2020 20192.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

CJ Marable is a 2-year Pass-Catching Back for Coastal Carolina. CJ's 2019 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 242 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So CJ Marable's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1085 Rush yards11 Rush TD204 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

38 Receptions295 Rec yards3 Rec TD7.8 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Kick returns38 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency25
Volume82
Explosiveness46
Consistency74
Receiving79

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.18 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.77 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs UL Monroe (SP+ -11).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsEastern Michigan	L23-30	-8.6	18	49	2.7	0	7	84	1	0.14
2	@Kansas	W12-7	-9.8	24	148	6.2	1	1	20	1	0.50
3	vsNorfolk State	W46-7	—	19	101	5.3	1	2	12	0	0.41
4	@Massachusetts	W62-28	-34.6	15	100	6.7	2	3	41	0	0.63
5	@App State	L37-56	11.3	16	95	5.9	1	2	28	0	0.33
7	vsGeorgia State	L21-31	-10.5	10	15	1.5	0	3	48	1	0.33
8	@Georgia Southern	L27-30	-4.5	7	36	5.1	1	4	24	0	0.38
10	vsTroy	W36-35	-4.4	14	52	3.7	1	4	11	0	0.09
11	vsLouisiana	L7-48	9.6	10	54	5.4	0	2	-4	0	-0.22
12	@Arkansas State	L27-28	-2.9	28	142	5.1	1	4	6	0	-0.01
13	@UL Monroe	L42-45	-10.7	18	172	9.6	2	4	27	0	0.77
14	vsTexas State	W24-21	-16.2	25	121	4.8	1	2	-2	0	0.27

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

28.7%

Passing plays

12.5%

Rushing plays

40.9%

Standard downs

31.2%

Passing downs

22.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.57
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.50 / 0.27

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Coastal Carolina	2.1	0.270	—	52.6
2020	Coastal Carolina	1.5	0.270	—	45.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.