What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.46Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.05Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.51Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chris Denson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers
- Efficiency100
- Volume23
- Dual-Threat100
- Consistency50
- Clutch0
A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸Peak game: 1.08 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Furman.
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 1.46
- Passing downs
- 0.06
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 1.69 / 1.05
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).