#4Carter Pabst

WR·Washington State·2025

Carter Pabst is a Vertical Threat WR for Washington State.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Carter Pabst's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

9 Receptions168 Rec yards1 Rec TD18.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency67
Volume12
Explosiveness78
Consistency45
Pass-Down0

Player type

Vertical Threat WR

Elite deep receiver who stretches the field. Wins downfield, commands safety attention, and creates the threat that opens underneath routes.

Downfield threatYAC upsideCreates space for teammates

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)67th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency45th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.54 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.21 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs North Texas (SP+ 14).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5
Amare Jones	Tulane	2019	58	0.230	0.8	13.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsIdaho	W13-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2	vsSan Diego State	W36-13	6.7	1	34	34.0	0	34	0.30
3	@North Texas	L10-59	13.8	3	65	21.7	0	43	1.21
4	vsWashington	L24-59	18.4	1	9	9.0	0	9	-0.13
9	vsToledo	W28-7	6.0	2	49	24.5	1	35	1.15
12	vsLouisiana Tech	W28-3	-1.3	1	5	5.0	0	5	-0.34
13	@James Madison	L20-24	12.3	1	6	6.0	0	6	-0.15

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

4.2%

Passing plays

8.8%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

3.4%

Passing downs

6.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.52
Passing downs: -0.20
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.20 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).