#18Bryson Nesbit

TE·North Carolina·2024

Bryson Nesbit is a Versatile TE for North Carolina.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.42
Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
Total EPA (value)0.46
Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Bryson Nesbit's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving

24 Receptions264 Rec yards3 Rec TD11.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs TE peers

Efficiency100
Volume14
Explosiveness27
Consistency87
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile TE

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency87th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.32 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.45 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs James Madison (SP+ 8).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Minnesota	W19-17	10.4	2	15	7.5	0	10	1.11
2	vsCharlotte	W38-20	-15.3	3	47	15.7	1	30	—
3	vsNorth Carolina Central	W45-10	—	3	42	14.0	0	24	0.85
4	vsJames Madison	L50-70	7.5	4	71	17.8	1	34	1.45
5	@Duke	L20-21	5.6	5	33	6.6	1	10	0.93
6	vsPittsburgh	L24-34	4.9	4	34	8.5	0	10	0.87
7	vsGeorgia Tech	L34-41	1.9	3	22	7.3	0	11	0.17

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

4.8%

Passing plays

9.3%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

6.1%

Passing downs

2.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.81
Passing downs: 1.53
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.92 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).