#6Bryson Donelson

RB·Fresno State·2025

Bryson Donelson is a Committee Back for Fresno State. Bryson's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 157 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Bryson Donelson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

583 Rush yards5 Rush TD142 Carries4.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

17 Receptions107 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume53
Explosiveness22
Consistency2
Receiving58

Player type

Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency2th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.27 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.53 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Southern.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
0	@Kansas	L7-31	4.1	11	34	3.1	0	1	39	0	—
1	vsGeorgia Southern	W42-14	-9.4	23	167	7.3	1	4	25	0	0.12
2	@Oregon State	W36-27	-15.9	7	34	4.9	0	1	4	0	0.06
3	vsSouthern	W56-7	—	9	90	10.0	1	2	19	0	0.53
4	@Hawai'i	W23-21	1.7	15	1	0.1	1	4	11	0	-0.14
6	vsNevada	W20-17	-13.4	14	39	2.8	0	1	10	0	-0.13
7	@Colorado State	L21-49	-15.6	8	23	2.9	0	1	6	0	-0.31
9	vsSan Diego State	L0-23	6.7	7	23	3.3	0	—	—	—	-0.25
10	@Boise State	W30-7	3.1	11	45	4.1	1	2	-7	0	-0.07
12	vsWyoming	W24-3	-11.3	13	45	3.5	1	1	0	0	-0.06
13	vsUtah State	L17-28	-3.1	9	32	3.6	0	—	—	—	-0.17
14	@San José State	W41-14	-14.3	9	30	3.3	0	—	—	—	-0.39
20	vsMiami (OH)	W18-3	-3.4	6	20	3.3	0	—	—	—	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

18.7%

Passing plays

6.0%

Rushing plays

29.9%

Standard downs

23.5%

Passing downs

8.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.10
Passing downs: 0.31
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.22 / -0.08

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).