#3Bryce Perkins

QB·Virginia·2019 20184.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Bryce Perkins is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Virginia. Bryce's 2019 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 704 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Bryce Perkins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

320/496 Comp/Att3538 Pass yards22 Pass TD12 INT64.5% Comp %

Rushing

769 Rush yards11 Rush TD227 Carries3.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat65
Consistency80
Clutch49

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.09 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.46 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs North Carolina (SP+ 10).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Pittsburgh	W30-14	4.1	20/34	181	2	0	50.0	44	0	0.09
2	vsWilliam & Mary	W52-17	—	16/26	192	2	2	95.9	68	1	0.44
3	vsFlorida State	W31-24	1.8	30/40	295	1	2	70.9	46	0	0.27
4	vsOld Dominion	W28-17	-24.4	15/24	175	1	0	55.9	35	1	0.01
5	@Notre Dame	L20-35	17.7	30/43	334	2	2	32.7	-29	0	0.13
7	@Miami	L9-17	9.6	25/42	252	0	0	59.6	27	0	0.11
8	vsDuke	W48-14	-1.8	13/26	141	0	1	46.4	62	3	0.11
9	@Louisville	L21-28	0.2	24/41	233	1	1	39.8	22	0	0.04
10	@North Carolina	W38-31	10.3	30/39	378	3	0	—	112	2	0.46
11	vsGeorgia Tech	W33-28	-12.0	24/35	258	1	0	—	106	1	0.24
13	vsLiberty	W55-27	-2.6	18/30	199	2	0	—	30	1	0.23
14	vsVirginia Tech	W39-30	8.0	20/33	311	1	1	—	164	2	0.36
15	vsClemson	L17-62	28.1	27/43	266	2	2	—	58	0	0.19
1	vsFlorida	L28-36	24.0	28/40	323	4	1	—	24	0	0.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

73.7%

Passing plays

95.9%

Rushing plays

46.9%

Standard downs

70.7%

Passing downs

80.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.24
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.20 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2019 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Virginia	4.9	0.382	—	210.8
2019	Virginia	4.0	0.349	-0.03	253.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.