#3Bryce Perkins

QB·Virginia·2019 20184.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Bryce Perkins is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Virginia. Bryce's 2018 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 555 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Bryce Perkins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

225/349 Comp/Att2679 Pass yards25 Pass TD9 INT64.5% Comp %

Rushing

924 Rush yards9 Rush TD211 Carries4.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency10
Volume100
Dual-Threat70
Consistency76
Clutch64

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)10th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.19 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.61 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Liberty (SP+ -20).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsRichmond	W42-13	—	13/24	185	2	1	108	2	0.23
2	@Indiana	L16-20	1.6	12/24	106	2	0	123	0	0.13
3	vsOhio	W45-31	4.0	25/30	379	3	0	8	0	0.52
4	vsLouisville	W27-3	-9.1	17/24	197	2	1	78	1	0.45
5	@NC State	L21-35	9.4	20/35	258	2	2	24	0	0.01
7	vsMiami	W16-13	12.7	12/21	92	0	3	61	0	-0.22
8	@Duke	W28-14	5.0	20/32	189	1	0	61	2	0.18
9	vsNorth Carolina	W31-21	-2.5	18/27	217	3	1	112	1	0.41
10	vsPittsburgh	L13-23	2.7	17/24	205	1	0	-7	0	0.18
11	vsLiberty	W45-24	-19.7	14/22	168	2	1	89	2	0.61
12	@Georgia Tech	L27-30	0.3	21/26	217	1	0	73	1	0.46
13	@Virginia Tech	L31-34	3.9	14/29	259	3	0	113	0	0.23
1	vsSouth Carolina	W28-0	14.9	22/31	207	3	0	81	0	0.37

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

64.3%

Passing plays

97.9%

Rushing plays

38.8%

Standard downs

60.5%

Passing downs

74.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.34
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2019 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Virginia	4.9	0.382	—	210.8
2019	Virginia	4.0	0.349	-0.03	253.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.