Braelon Allen

RB·Wisconsin·2023 2022 20212.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Braelon Allen is a 3-year Featured Back for Wisconsin. Braelon's 2022 season ranks in the 18th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 217 plays — a developing rate for the RB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Braelon Allen's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2021

★★★★★

4-Star · High major target

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9159
National rank: #227
High school: Fond Du Lac
Hometown: Fond Du Lac, WI

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2022 Production

Rushing

1237 Rush yards11 Rush TD229 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

13 Receptions104 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs RB peers

Efficiency18
Volume90
Explosiveness48
Consistency33
Receiving32

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)18th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency33th %ile · below avg

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.09 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.75 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Illinois State.

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsIllinois State	W38-0	—	14	148	10.6	2	—	—	—	0.75
2	vsWashington State	L14-17	9.5	21	98	4.7	0	2	12	0	0.06
3	vsNew Mexico State	W66-7	-15.4	15	86	5.7	3	—	—	—	0.40
4	@Ohio State	L21-52	31.1	23	165	7.2	1	3	6	0	0.25
5	vsIllinois	L10-34	15.9	8	2	0.3	0	—	—	—	-0.58
6	@Northwestern	W42-7	-13.4	23	135	5.9	0	1	10	0	0.32
7	@Michigan State	L28-34	1.2	29	123	4.2	2	3	33	0	0.19
8	vsPurdue	W35-24	7.7	16	113	7.1	1	1	39	0	0.43
10	vsMaryland	W23-10	11.2	23	119	5.2	1	—	—	—	0.33
11	@Iowa	L10-24	12.7	17	40	2.4	0	1	4	0	-0.31
12	@Nebraska	W15-14	-1.2	18	92	5.1	0	—	—	—	0.09
1	vsOklahoma State	W24-17	11.3	22	116	5.3	1	2	0	0	-0.10

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.5%

Passing plays

5.5%

Rushing plays

50.7%

Standard downs

39.0%

Passing downs

13.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.32
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.43 / 0.13

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2023 · 34 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	Wisconsin	3.1	0.350	—	67.9
2022	Wisconsin	2.3	0.250	-0.10	54.2
2023	Wisconsin	2.8	0.300	+0.05	58.5

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.