#7B.J. Denker

QB·Arizona·20130.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

B.J. Denker is a Dual-Threat QB for Arizona. B.J.'s 2013 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 486 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So B.J. Denker's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

233/381 Comp/Att2516 Pass yards16 Pass TD7 INT61.2% Comp %

Rushing

949 Rush yards13 Rush TD181 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts44 Punt yards44.0 Yards/punt44 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat63
Consistency67
Clutch75

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency67th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.17 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.45 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Colorado (SP+ -1).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNorthern Arizona	W35-0	—	9/13	87	1	0	70.7	71	1	0.01
2	@UNLV	W58-13	-10.1	8/21	81	0	0	49.7	63	2	-0.08
3	vsUTSA	W38-13	-6.6	14/21	158	1	0	95.1	90	2	0.27
5	@Washington	L13-31	20.5	14/35	119	0	2	26.0	56	1	-0.10
7	@USC	L31-38	22.5	28/44	363	4	0	45.1	-4	0	0.07
8	vsUtah	W35-24	11.8	18/30	168	1	0	69.8	51	2	0.06
9	@Colorado	W44-20	-0.7	21/32	265	1	1	94.4	192	0	0.45
10	@California	W33-28	-8.7	24/38	261	1	0	73.3	44	3	0.18
11	vsUCLA	L26-31	20.0	20/33	186	2	1	53.2	82	0	0.22
12	vsWashington State	L17-24	8.2	26/38	200	1	0	41.7	64	0	0.07
13	vsOregon	W42-16	28.7	19/22	178	2	0	92.6	102	0	0.43
14	@Arizona State	L21-58	17.5	15/30	175	0	3	24.6	87	1	0.11
1	vsBoston College	W42-19	7.1	17/24	275	2	0	91.6	51	1	0.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.5%

Passing plays

98.6%

Rushing plays

25.1%

Standard downs

46.9%

Passing downs

67.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.11
Passing downs: 0.29
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.16 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.