#8Ameer Abdullah

RB·Nebraska·2014 20133.2 pts line value1st Round

Ameer Abdullah is a 2-year Featured Back for Nebraska. Ameer's 2013 season ranks in the 73th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 272 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ameer Abdullah's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Rushing

1690 Rush yards9 Rush TD281 Carries6.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

26 Receptions232 Rec yards2 Rec TD8.9 Yards/rec

Returns

4 Kick returns77 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs RB peers

Efficiency73
Volume90
Explosiveness60
Consistency66
Receiving39

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)73th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency66th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.65 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Illinois (SP+ -4).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsWyoming	W37-34	-15.3	19	114	6.0	0	1	3	0	-0.04
2	vsSouthern Miss	W56-13	-24.5	17	114	6.7	2	4	16	0	0.13
3	vsUCLA	L21-41	20.0	23	98	4.3	0	3	50	0	0.14
4	vsSouth Dakota State	W59-20	—	15	139	9.3	1	3	46	0	0.34
6	vsIllinois	W39-19	-4.0	20	225	11.3	2	1	15	0	0.65
7	@Purdue	W44-7	-15.7	20	126	6.3	1	2	7	0	0.20
9	@Minnesota	L23-34	2.5	19	165	8.7	0	3	6	0	0.60
10	vsNorthwestern	W27-24	4.2	24	127	5.3	0	3	31	0	0.16
11	@Michigan	W17-13	11.1	27	105	3.9	1	1	5	1	-0.19
12	vsMichigan State	L28-41	19.7	22	123	5.6	0	1	12	1	0.24
13	@Penn State	W23-20	8.9	25	147	5.9	0	2	18	0	0.09
14	vsIowa	L17-38	17.3	23	85	3.7	1	2	23	0	0.09
1	vsGeorgia	W24-19	25.1	27	122	4.5	1	—	—	—	0.11

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.4%

Passing plays

6.8%

Rushing plays

48.3%

Standard downs

36.7%

Passing downs

18.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.36
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.66 / 0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2014 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Nebraska	3.2	0.130	—	33.3
2014	Nebraska	5.3	0.380	+0.25	99.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.