#17AJ Swann

QB·App State·2025

AJ Swann is a Clutch Passer for App State. AJ's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 221 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So AJ Swann's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

130/222 Comp/Att1494 Pass yards10 Pass TD8 INT58.6% Comp %

Rushing

-12 Rush yards0 Rush TD20 Carries-0.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat18
Consistency0
Clutch92

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.66 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Old Dominion (SP+ 6).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsCharlotte	W34-11	-26.7	31/46	368	3	0	76.3	25	0	0.31
2	vsLindenwood	W20-13	—	19/34	293	2	1	41.2	15	0	0.35
3	@Southern Miss	L22-38	-7.1	15/23	217	0	3	24.6	6	0	-0.32
5	@Boise State	L14-47	3.1	11/24	64	1	2	4.9	-21	0	-0.44
9	@Old Dominion	L21-24	5.9	12/16	140	2	0	95.2	—	—	0.66
11	vsGeorgia Southern	L23-25	-9.4	34/51	348	2	1	24.4	-13	0	0.23
12	@James Madison	L10-58	12.3	8/28	64	0	1	0.9	-24	0	-0.41

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

47.2%

Passing plays

71.1%

Rushing plays

6.1%

Standard downs

42.1%

Passing downs

56.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.01
Passing downs: 0.27
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.16 / -0.01

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).