#5Aaron Young

RB·Old Dominion·2024

Aaron Young is a Committee Back for Old Dominion. Aaron's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 151 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Aaron Young's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

119 Rush yards2 Rush TD23 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

2 Receptions39 Rec yards0 Rec TD19.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume65
Explosiveness44
Consistency52
Receiving15

Player type

Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency52th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.30 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.48 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Bowling Green (SP+ -2).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@South Carolina	L19-23	16.9	16	56	3.5	0	2	9	0	-0.11
2	vsEast Carolina	L14-20	-1.0	25	83	3.3	1	2	12	0	-0.03
3	vsVirginia Tech	L17-37	10.0	17	67	3.9	0	—	—	—	-0.13
5	@Bowling Green	W30-27	-1.8	12	74	6.2	1	1	3	0	0.48
6	@Coastal Carolina	L37-45	-6.9	7	21	3.0	0	1	4	0	-0.19
8	vsTexas State	W24-14	5.4	9	53	5.9	0	—	—	—	0.38
9	vsGeorgia Southern	W47-19	-1.7	14	77	5.5	1	—	—	—	0.39
10	@App State	L20-28	-8.1	14	110	7.9	0	1	4	0	0.39
12	vsJames Madison	L32-35	7.5	17	116	6.8	1	—	—	—	0.06
13	vsMarshall	L35-42	3.1	18	111	6.2	2	—	—	—	0.28

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

22.7%

Passing plays

1.9%

Rushing plays

41.4%

Standard downs

27.8%

Passing downs

12.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.09
Passing downs: 0.38
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.14 / 0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).