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Senators at Red Wings
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸3
Detroit Red Wings
2
FinalTV FDSNDET, TSN5·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Detroit Red Wings 3-2. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Carter Yakemchuk's goal at 9:28 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 66% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 2.6 to 2.3; shots on goal were OTT 21, DET 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 33 of 35 (.943), 0.6 goals saved above expected; John Gibson stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Carter Yakemchuk (1 G, 1 A), 2. Brady Tkachuk (1 G, 1 A), 3. Dylan Larkin (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    C. Yakemchuk1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    D. Larkin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT1521006321
DETDET010110115235

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(20)PPG
    T. Stützle (41), C. Yakemchuk (1)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    17:15

2nd period

  1. OTT
    C. Yakemchuk(1)
    A. Zub (21)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    9:28
  2. OTT
    L. Eller(4)
    B. Tkachuk (29)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +10 ptsVideo
    3-0
    11:05
  3. DET
    D. Shine(3)
    S. Edvinsson (13), M. Seider (40)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +9 ptsVideo
    3-1
    14:50

3rd period

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(29)PPG
    A. DeBrincat (39), L. Raymond (47)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-2
    4:13

Penalties

OTT 15 PIM·DET 11 PIM

1st

  • 3:32OTTNick Cousins · Roughingdrawn by Lucas Raymond2 min
  • 8:38DETMason Appleton · Hookingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min
  • 14:26OTTJordan Spence · Trippingdrawn by Andrew Copp2 min
  • 16:36DETSimon Edvinsson · Trippingdrawn by Ridly Greig2 min

3rd

  • 2:39OTTNikolas Matinpalo · Trippingdrawn by Dominik Shine2 min
  • 13:54OTTRidly Greig · Interferencedrawn by Emmitt Finnie2 min
  • 19:51OTTBrady Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min
  • 19:51DETDylan Larkin · Roughingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 19:51OTTArtem Zub · Fightingdrawn by Alex DeBrincat5 min
  • 19:51DETAlex DeBrincat · Fightingdrawn by Artem Zub5 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalOTT goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Carter Yakemchuk, 2nd 9:28 — OTT 66% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.22D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.19D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.17A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.16P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.16A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.12D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.10E. Finnie · On goal · xG 0.08J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.08J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.08J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.08A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.07D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.07L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.07A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.07D. Shine · Goal · xG 0.06S. Edvinsson · Missed · xG 0.06B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.05A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.05J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.04D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.04D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.04P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.04L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.04M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.03E. Finnie · On goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.03M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.03J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.03M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.03A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.03M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.03J. Faulk · Missed · xG 0.03M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.03L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.02M. Kasper · Missed · xG 0.02M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.02D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.01M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.01A. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Edvinsson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.01M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.01S. Edvinsson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.01S. Edvinsson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.00D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.00
DET2 G · 2.6 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsDET
2.33 G
All situations
2 G2.6
2.02 G
Even strength
1 G1.4
0.11 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT44%56%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.25 – 2.57

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsDET
21
Shots on goal
35
57%
Faceoffs
43%
1/2
Power play
1/4
15
Penalty minutes
11
26
Hits
13
9
Blocked shots
14
19
Giveaways
16
6
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43T. KlevenD000010.00300—28:11
10J. SpenceD000-100.02112—26:24
2A. ZubD011+100.02015—25:10
33N. MatinpaloD000020.09302—19:57
12S. PintoC000+100.010105019:06
22M. AmadioR000000.20010—18:57
71R. GreigC000+130.410123318:45
18T. StützleC011-120.403106717:33
7B. TkachukL112+110.233026715:48
24D. CozensC000020.083005015:13
19D. BathersonR000-130.3420010013:41
28C. GirouxR000000.000006713:23
58C. YakemchukD112+220.12020—12:46
21N. CousinsC000+110.01412012:20
89L. EllerC101+110.122005610:23
20F. ZetterlundL000010.03200—10:04
37W. FoegeleL000010.1600010010:03
56J. DonovanD000010.01000—04:42
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(W)35332.9432.60+0.6060:00

Season series

DET leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).