Wild at Oilers 1-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Minnesota Wild

▸1

Edmonton Oilers

FinalTV FDSNNO, FDSNWI·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Edmonton Oilers 1-0. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jonas Brodin's goal at 13:11 of the first period, which took the Wild's chances from 46% to 61%. Expected goals were close — MIN 2.5, EDM 2.3; shots on goal were MIN 24, EDM 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Jesper Wallstedt stopped 33 of 33 (1.000), 2.3 goals saved above expected; Stuart Skinner stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jesper Wallstedt (33 saves, 1.000), 2. Stuart Skinner (23 saves, .958), 3. Jonas Brodin (1 G).

Three stars

★
J. Wallstedt33 saves, 1.000
★★
S. Skinner23 saves, .958
★★★
J. Brodin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	19	06	09	124
EDM	07	015	011	033

Scoring

1 goal

1st period

J. Brodin(3)
N. Sturm (1)
slapxG 0.02win prob +14 ptsVideo
1-0
13:11

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

10:42Ty Emberson · Interferencedrawn by Yakov Trenin2 min

2nd

5:26Ryan Hartman · Hookingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
11:45Ryan Hartman · Trippingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min

3rd

9:45Darnell Nurse · Holdingdrawn by Matt Boldy2 min
19:18Matt Boldy · Trippingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: EDM

Biggest swing: Jonas Brodin, 1st 13:11 — MIN 46% → 61%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.3 xG · 50 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 2.5 xG · 36 att EDM

0 G · 2.3 xG · 50 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.51 G
All situations: 0 G2.3; 1.51 G
Even strength: 0 G1.6; 1.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

53%47%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.44 – 2.27

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

24
Shots on goal: 33; 39%
Faceoffs: 61%; 0/2
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 25
Hits: 19; 20
Blocked shots: 13; 12
Giveaways: 18; 8
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Minnesota Wild skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
25J. BrodinD	1	0	1	+1	1	0.02	0	4	0	—	25:46
7B. FaberD	0	0	0	0	0	0.06	0	4	0	—	25:39
97K. KaprizovL	0	0	0	0	2	0.19	0	0	0	—	21:14
12M. BoldyL	0	0	0	0	1	0.21	2	2	2	—	19:59
5J. MiddletonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	4	1	0	—	19:13
38R. HartmanR	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	0	4	4	21	18:58
36M. ZuccarelloR	0	0	0	0	6	0.78	0	0	0	—	18:45
46J. SpurgeonD	0	0	0	0	0	0.04	3	2	0	—	18:40
14J. Eriksson EkC	0	0	0	0	2	0.40	1	0	0	44	18:29
90M. JohanssonL	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	0	0	—	16:59
8Z. BuiumD	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	0	0	0	—	16:29
78N. SturmC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	1	3	0	60	16:21
13Y. TreninC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	5	0	0	50	15:09
91V. TarasenkoR	0	0	0	0	3	0.30	2	0	0	—	13:46
24Z. BogosianD	0	0	0	0	3	0.04	1	0	0	—	11:34
39B. JonesC	0	0	0	0	0	0.17	1	0	0	33	06:39
19T. PitlickC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5	0	0	0	06:21
28L. OhgrenL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	05:17

Minnesota Wild goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30J. Wallstedt(W)	33	33	0	1.000	2.31	+2.31	60:00

Season series

MIN leads 3-0

Dec 21@0this game
Dec 202@5Final
Jan 317@3Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers

1st period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score