Canucks at Ducks 5-4 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Vancouver Canucks

▸5

Anaheim Ducks

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Recap

written from the game data

The Vancouver Canucks beat the Anaheim Ducks 5-4. The Canucks scored first and never trailed. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Max Sasson's goal at 15:58 of the third period, which took the Canucks' chances from 48% to 89%. Expected goals favored the Canucks, 5.0 to 4.7; shots on goal were VAN 28, ANA 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Ducks win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Nikita Tolopilo stopped 37 of 41 (.902), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Petr Mrazek stopped 23 of 27 (.852). Three stars: 1. Troy Terry (1 A), 2. Max Sasson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jackson LaCombe (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

★
T. Terry1 A
★★
M. Sasson1 G, 1 A
★★★
J. LaCombe1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	25	112	211	528
ANA	013	317	111	441

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

L. Karlsson(4)
M. Sasson (2), M. Pettersson (4)
snapxG 0.40win prob +13 ptsVideo
1-0
9:49
E. Kane(4)PPG
T. Willander (4), F. Hronek (12)
snapxG 0.05win prob +13 ptsVideo
2-0
11:47

2nd period

J. LaCombe(3)PPG
C. Gauthier (14)
snapxG 0.08win prob +13 ptsVideo
2-1
0:09
C. Garland(6)
B. Boeser (7), T. Willander (5)
backhandxG 0.06win prob +17 ptsVideo
3-1
9:04
L. Carlsson(12)
T. Terry (19), O. Zellweger (5)
backhandxG 0.11win prob +17 ptsVideo
3-2
16:19
M. McTavish(5)
B. Sennecke (10), J. LaCombe (9)
wristxG 0.11win prob +23 ptsVideo
3-3
18:34

3rd period

M. Sasson(5)
F. Hronek (13), Q. Hughes (20)
tip-inxG 0.12win prob +41 ptsVideo
4-3
15:58
D. O'Connor(7)EN
E. Pettersson (14)
wristxG 0.59win prob +7 ptsVideo
5-3
18:08
C. Gauthier(14)
J. LaCombe (10), C. Kreider (6)
tip-inxG 0.11win prob +1 ptsVideo
5-4
19:53

Penalties

14 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

1:46Troy Terry · Holdingdrawn by Elias Pettersson2 min
10:18Alex Killorn · Holdingdrawn by Quinn Hughes2 min
13:14David Kampf · Interferencedrawn by Beckett Sennecke2 min
19:34Evander Kane · Cross checkingdrawn by Jansen Harkins2 min

2nd

14:13Linus Karlsson · Trippingdrawn by Petr Mrazek2 min
19:28Aatu Räty · Trippingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min

3rd

2:25Nikita Nesterenko · Hookingdrawn by Quinn Hughes2 min
3:31Elias Pettersson · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Petr Mrazek2 min
7:21Max Sasson · Cross checkingdrawn by Mason McTavish2 min
7:21Mason McTavish · Embellishment2 min
12:27Drew O'Connor · High stickingdrawn by Beckett Sennecke2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: ANA

Biggest swing: Max Sasson, 3rd 15:58 — VAN 48% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

4 G · 4.7 xG · 72 att

←

attacks

attacks →

5 G · 5.0 xG · 49 att ANA

4 G · 4.7 xG · 72 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

5.04 G
All situations: 4 G4.7; 2.73 G
Even strength: 3 G2.9; 0.91 G
Power play: 1 G1.5; 0.30 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 121 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

38%62%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.76 – 4.58

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

28
Shots on goal: 41; 49%
Faceoffs: 51%; 1/3
Power play: 1/6; 14
Penalty minutes: 8; 13
Hits: 15; 17
Blocked shots: 16; 11
Giveaways: 11; 5
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Vancouver Canucks skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
43Q. HughesD	0	1	1	0	1	0.61	0	3	0	—	24:52
17F. HronekD	0	2	2	+3	1	0.05	0	1	0	—	24:25
8C. GarlandR	1	0	1	0	5	0.22	0	2	0	—	23:05
40E. PetterssonC	0	1	1	+1	3	0.50	0	1	2	57	21:28
29M. PetterssonD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	21:08
6B. BoeserR	0	1	1	0	2	0.73	2	1	0	—	20:52
57T. MyersD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	1	1	0	—	20:37
74J. DeBruskL	0	0	0	0	2	0.39	0	1	0	100	18:20
91E. KaneL	1	0	1	-1	3	0.21	2	0	2	50	16:25
64D. KampfC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.22	2	2	2	44	16:14
44K. SherwoodL	0	0	0	+1	1	0.22	1	1	0	—	15:28
5T. WillanderD	0	2	2	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	14:48
18D. O'ConnorL	1	0	1	+2	2	0.95	0	1	2	67	11:25
25E. PetterssonD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.06	0	1	0	—	11:25
63M. SassonC	1	1	2	+2	1	0.21	1	0	2	50	07:58
54A. RätyC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.01	2	0	2	44	07:16
94L. KarlssonC	1	0	1	-1	3	0.53	1	0	2	0	06:49
13A. BainsL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	04:58

Vancouver Canucks goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
60N. Tolopilo(W)	41	37	4	.902	4.67	+0.67	59:52

Season series

VAN leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score