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Maple Leafs at Lightning
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
Final/OTTV FDSNSUN, SN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3 in overtime, Matthew Knies scoring at 2:56. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matthew Knies's goal at 2:56 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.2 to 3.6; shots on goal were TOR 31, TBL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 31 (.871). Three stars: 1. Matthew Knies (3 G), 2. Mitch Marner (1 G, 2 A), 3. Victor Hedman (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Knies3 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    V. Hedman1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR210091913431
TBLTBL180122602328

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(25)
    A. Matthews (42)
    slapxG 0.12win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:13
  2. TOR
    M. Knies(27)
    A. Matthews (43), M. Marner (71)
    snapxG 0.34win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    3:33
  3. TBL
    N. Perbix(6)
    A. Cirelli (28), B. Hagel (49)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    18:58

3rd period

  1. TBL
    O. Bjorkstrand(21)PPG
    N. Kucherov (82), V. Hedman (48)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +21 ptsVideo
    2-2
    0:50
  2. TOR
    M. Knies(28)PPG
    J. Tavares (35), M. Marner (72)
    snapxG 0.50win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-2
    2:03
  3. TBL
    V. Hedman(15)PPG
    O. Bjorkstrand (25), B. Hagel (50)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +34 ptsVideo
    3-3
    11:05

Overtime

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(29)
    A. Matthews (44), M. Rielly (31)
    snapxG 0.29win prob +51 ptsVideo
    4-3
    2:56

Penalties

TOR 15 PIM·TBL 11 PIM

1st

  • 3:42TORJohn Tavares · Trippingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min

2nd

  • 19:01TORScott Laughton · Interferencedrawn by Darren Raddysh2 min

3rd

  • 1:18TBLEmil Lilleberg · High sticking double minordrawn by John Tavares4 min
  • 3:24TBLErik Cernak · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min
  • 3:24TORMatthew Knies · Roughingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 3:38TORMax Domi · Trippingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min
  • 9:25TORBobby McMann · Cross checkingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 9:25TORBobby McMann · Fightingdrawn by Brayden Point5 min
  • 9:25TBLBrayden Point · Fightingdrawn by Bobby McMann5 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalTOR goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Matthew Knies, OT 2:56 — TOR 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Point · On goal · xG 0.24N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.20V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.19G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.16A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.16Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.15N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.13M. Chaffee · On goal · xG 0.12A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.12B. Point · Missed · xG 0.12Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.12N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.11O. Bjorkstrand · Missed · xG 0.11O. Bjorkstrand · Goal · xG 0.11O. Bjorkstrand · Missed · xG 0.10O. Bjorkstrand · Missed · xG 0.10N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.10V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.09M. Chaffee · On goal · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.07V. Hedman · Goal · xG 0.07Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.07A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.06V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.06B. Point · On goal · xG 0.06E. Lilleberg · On goal · xG 0.05D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.05M. Chaffee · Missed · xG 0.04G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.03J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.03B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.02N. Perbix · Goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.02A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.02D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.01V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.01N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.01J. Moser · Missed · xG 0.01J. Moser · Missed · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.01
TBL3 G · 3.6 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsTBL
4.24 G
All situations
3 G3.6
3.03 G
Even strength
1 G2.7
1.21 G
Power play
2 G0.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 100 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR58%42%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.07 – 3.56

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsTBL
31
Shots on goal
28
61%
Faceoffs
39%
1/2
Power play
2/4
15
Penalty minutes
11
18
Hits
25
33
Blocked shots
14
12
Giveaways
13
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000+110.17120—25:14
16M. MarnerR123+230.20110—23:22
8C. TanevD000020.01050—23:12
34A. MatthewsC033+320.420204622:20
25B. CarloD000010.02040—22:19
2S. BenoitD000+110.02140—20:56
44M. RiellyD011+130.18070—20:29
23M. KniesL303+361.47102—17:42
91J. TavaresC011-120.242028016:22
88W. NylanderR000-130.5900010015:35
24S. LaughtonC000000.072522514:18
19C. JarnkrokC000-100.00000013:22
11M. DomiC000000.000126712:43
18S. LorentzC000000.02010012:17
29P. HolmbergR000010.2111010012:04
74B. McMannC000020.26307011:27
89N. RobertsonL000020.30300—10:18
51P. MyersD000020.03300—07:19
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz(W)28253.8933.60+0.6062:56

Season series

TOR leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).