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Lightning at Maple Leafs
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
FinalTV NHLN, FDSNSUN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nick Paul's goal at 15:57 of the first period, which took the Lightning's chances from 31% to 47%. Expected goals were close — TBL 3.7, TOR 3.9; shots on goal were TBL 34, TOR 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 10 of 14 (.714), 2.1 goals below expected; Anthony Stolarz stopped 32 of 34 (.941), 1.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Anthony Stolarz (32 saves, .941), 2. William Nylander (2 G, 1 A), 3. Chris Tanev.

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Stolarz32 saves, .941
  2. ★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    C. Tanev

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL11101617234
TORTOR18411010529

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(4)
    M. Domi (6)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    3:57
  2. TBL
    N. Paul(2)
    V. Hedman (5), M. Chaffee (2)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    15:57

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(3)PPG
    M. Marner (5), W. Nylander (2)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-2
    1:56
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(5)
    B. McMann (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    7:33
  3. TOR
    M. Pacioretty(2)
    J. Tavares (1), C. Timmins (2)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-4
    9:31
  4. TOR
    M. Knies(2)
    M. Marner (6)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +3 ptsVideo
    1-5
    14:02

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(3)PPG
    N. Kucherov (3), V. Hedman (6)
    wristxG 0.14Video
    2-5
    14:53

Penalties

TBL 13 PIM·TOR 17 PIM

1st

  • 13:35TBLDarren Raddysh · Interferencedrawn by David Kampf2 min

2nd

  • 1:06TBLMitchell Chaffee · Hookingdrawn by Bobby McMann2 min
  • 10:02TORBobby McMann · Roughing removing opponents helmetdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 10:02TORMax Domi · Hookingdrawn by Michael Eyssimont2 min
  • 14:37TBLJake Guentzel · Roughingdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min
  • 19:30TORJohn Tavares · Hookingdrawn by Conor Geekie2 min

3rd

  • 5:35TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Interferencedrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min
  • 8:30TBLEmil Lilleberg · Holdingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 14:05TORMax Domi · Roughingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 14:05TBLZemgus Girgensons · Fightingdrawn by Max Domi5 min
  • 14:05TORMax Domi · Fightingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons5 min
  • 16:31TORChris Tanev · Holding the stickdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalTBL goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Nick Paul, 1st 15:57 — TBL 31% → 47%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.42A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.21M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.21A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.19J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.18W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.17M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.16M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.16M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.16N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.13M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.13M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.12M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.11A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10D. Kampf · Missed · xG 0.10M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.09W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.06B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.05O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.04S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.04O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.04N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.04W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Pacioretty · Goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.01O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.01M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.01S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.01S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.01M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR5 G · 3.9 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsTOR
3.72 G
All situations
5 G3.9
2.11 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
1.61 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL54%46%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.65 – 3.42

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsTOR
34
Shots on goal
29
63%
Faceoffs
37%
1/6
Power play
1/4
13
Penalty minutes
17
20
Hits
20
14
Blocked shots
18
10
Giveaways
16
4
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD022+130.43020—24:19
21B. PointC101-110.140007921:55
90J. MoserD000020.30010—21:52
38B. HagelL000050.4310010021:39
86N. KucherovR011040.38210—21:39
59J. GuentzelC000-130.5702210020:19
81E. CernakD000-100.01110—18:26
27R. McDonaghD000020.02010—18:09
71A. CirelliC000020.151206416:50
43D. RaddyshD000-310.04002—15:45
20N. PaulL101-120.254003315:24
14C. GeekieC000-300.021105013:34
41M. ChaffeeR011010.26402—13:30
78E. LillebergD000-300.01222—13:18
23M. EyssimontC000050.58100011:11
13C. AtkinsonR000-310.06110—09:29
11L. GlendeningC000000.001006709:26
28Z. GirgensonsC000020.09105008:32
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)14104.7141.86-2.1429:31
31J. Johansson15141.9331.58+0.5828:22

Season series

TOR leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).