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Maple Leafs at Lightning
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
FinalTV FDSNSUN, SN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Chris Tanev's goal at 8:06 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 65% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.7 to 2.8; shots on goal were TOR 29, TBL 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 79% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 38 of 41 (.927), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 2.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Chris Tanev (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mitch Marner (2 A), 3. Victor Hedman (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    C. Tanev1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    V. Hedman2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR1731517529
TBLTBL010013318341

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(9)
    C. Tanev (5), A. Matthews (7)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    7:13

2nd period

  1. TOR
    C. Tanev(1)
    M. Marner (21), P. Holmberg (3)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    8:06
  2. TOR
    N. Robertson(2)
    F. Minten (2), S. Benoit (3)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +10 ptsVideo
    3-0
    8:39
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(10)
    M. Marner (22), M. Rielly (10)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-0
    18:59

3rd period

  1. TBL
    M. Eyssimont(3)
    D. Raddysh (6)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +1 ptsVideo
    4-1
    11:21
  2. TBL
    J. Guentzel(10)
    B. Hagel (18), V. Hedman (17)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +2 ptsVideo
    4-2
    15:19
  3. TBL
    C. Atkinson(2)PPG
    B. Hagel (19), V. Hedman (18)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +5 ptsVideo
    4-3
    17:38
  4. TOR
    W. Nylander(15)EN
    A. Matthews (8), M. Knies (5)
    wristxG 0.58win prob +7 ptsVideo
    5-3
    18:44

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·TBL 2 PIM

1st

  • 7:50TBLBrayden Point · Trippingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

2nd

  • 9:25TORserved by Nikita Grebenkin · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 6:19TORAuston Matthews · Trippingdrawn by Conor Geekie2 min
  • 17:27TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Cross checkingdrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalTOR goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Chris Tanev, 2nd 8:06 — TOR 65% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Atkinson · On goal · xG 0.41C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.33B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.24N. Perbix · Missed · xG 0.24M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.21B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.16C. Atkinson · Goal · xG 0.14J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.14B. Point · On goal · xG 0.12A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.11J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.10A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.10M. Eyssimont · Goal · xG 0.08A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.07J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.07A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.07B. Point · On goal · xG 0.07C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.07D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.06B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.06A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.06G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.06J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.05J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.05V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.04B. Point · On goal · xG 0.04B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.02C. Atkinson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Geekie · Missed · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.02E. Lilleberg · Missed · xG 0.02J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.02J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lilleberg · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.02B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.01J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.01C. Atkinson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.01A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.01C. Atkinson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Point · On goal · xG 0.01B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.01G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.01A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.01D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.01M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.00J. Moser · Missed · xG 0.00E. Lilleberg · On goal · xG 0.00A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.00E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.00
TBL3 G · 3.7 xG · 57 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsTBL
2.84 G
All situations
3 G3.7
1.64 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.20 G
Power play
1 G1.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR21%79%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.76 – 3.50

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsTBL
29
Shots on goal
41
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/1
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
22
Hits
20
15
Blocked shots
12
11
Giveaways
9
4
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. TanevD112+220.12010—22:38
2S. BenoitD011+120.13910—22:13
44M. RiellyD011020.04010—21:53
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000+100.00112—21:31
16M. MarnerR022+140.13010—21:08
88W. NylanderR101+241.09020—20:35
34A. MatthewsC022+220.090126720:23
23M. KniesL112+220.11000—19:50
91J. TavaresC101+130.322204318:25
25C. TimminsD000020.05020—18:05
29P. HolmbergR011+110.451005017:21
39F. MintenC011+110.033003311:31
22J. McCabeD000+210.00200—11:27
89N. RobertsonL101+120.0600010011:21
24C. DewarC000-100.002102910:52
18S. LorentzC000+110.13220010:51
92A. NylanderL000-100.00000—08:42
71N. GrebenkinR000-100.00000—07:22
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(W)41383.9273.68+0.6859:42

Season series

TOR leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).