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Red Wings at Senators
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
1
Ottawa Senators
▸2
FinalTV FDSNDET, Prime·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Detroit Red Wings 2-1. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Cozens's goal at 14:56 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 60% to 89%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 4.5 to 3.0; shots on goal were DET 49, OTT 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Cam Talbot stopped 21 of 23 (.913); Linus Ullmark stopped 48 of 49 (.980), 3.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Linus Ullmark (48 saves, .980), 2. Dylan Cozens (1 G), 3. David Perron (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    L. Ullmark48 saves, .980
  2. ★★
    OTT
    D. Cozens1 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    D. Perron1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET09027113149
OTTOTT091915223

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

  1. OTT
    D. Perron(4)PPG
    C. Giroux (28)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-1
    7:39

3rd period

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(27)
    L. Raymond (44)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +25 ptsVideo
    1-1
    2:58
  2. OTT
    D. Cozens(12)PPG
    J. Sanderson (37), B. Tkachuk (24)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +29 ptsVideo
    1-2
    14:56

Penalties

DET 10 PIM·OTT 8 PIM

1st

  • 9:39OTTAdam Gaudette · Slashingdrawn by Vladimir Tarasenko2 min
  • 15:09DETJustin Holl · Slashingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 15:09OTTTim Stützle · Holdingdrawn by Justin Holl2 min
  • 19:35DETSimon Edvinsson · Trippingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

2nd

  • 6:24DETJustin Holl · Holdingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
  • 11:58OTTRidly Greig · Trippingdrawn by Lucas Raymond2 min
  • 16:06OTTDrake Batherson · High stickingdrawn by Simon Edvinsson2 min

3rd

  • 0:27DETBen Chiarot · Boardingdrawn by Ridly Greig2 min
  • 14:44DETMoritz Seider · Roughingdrawn by Ridly Greig2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalDET goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Dylan Cozens, 3rd 14:56 — OTT 60% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.87D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.16B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.15D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.15D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.14D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.13F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.13A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.12N. Matinpalo · On goal · xG 0.12D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.11D. Perron · Goal · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.08T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.05S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.04T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.03S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.03M. Amadio · On goal · xG 0.03F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.03A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.03J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.02N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.02D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.02S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.02N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.01M. Highmore · On goal · xG 0.01N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.01A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.01M. Amadio · On goal · xG 0.01
OTT2 G · 3.0 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsOTT
4.51 G
All situations
2 G3.0
2.51 G
Even strength
0 G0.8
2.00 G
Power play
2 G1.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 101 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET83%17%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.33 – 2.08

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsOTT
49
Shots on goal
23
37%
Faceoffs
63%
0/3
Power play
2/4
10
Penalty minutes
8
31
Hits
43
21
Blocked shots
12
19
Giveaways
11
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
53M. SeiderD000040.10432—23:28
71D. LarkinC101+140.501003721:14
23L. RaymondL011+150.53200—20:16
77S. EdvinssonD000020.34142—20:01
56E. GustafssonD000+110.03000—20:00
8B. ChiarotD000030.04122—19:51
88P. KaneR000040.24010—17:43
92M. KasperC000030.194003517:20
37J. CompherL000000.000104216:52
93A. DeBrincatR0000111.24100—16:50
20A. JohanssonD000000.00230—16:48
85E. SoderblomL000+120.15120—15:35
11V. TarasenkoR000040.30200—13:48
27M. RasmussenC000020.366002513:30
3J. HollD000+110.23014—12:58
15C. SmithC000020.21100010:56
14T. MotteC000010.092406010:45
50D. ShineR000000.00300—07:30
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39C. Talbot(L)23212.9132.08+0.0857:08

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).