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Blues at Wild
NHL

St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild

NHL scoreboard
St. Louis Blues
4
Minnesota Wild
▸6
FinalTV FDSNMW, FDSNNO·Xcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the St. Louis Blues 6-4. The Wild came back from two goals down. The Blues led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matt Boldy's goal at 3:57 of the third period, which took the Wild's chances from 52% to 78%. Expected goals were close — STL 2.1, MIN 2.0; shots on goal were STL 33, MIN 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 20 of 25 (.800), 3.4 goals below expected; Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 15 of 15 (1.000), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan Hartman (2 A), 2. Jake Middleton (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jonas Brodin (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MIN
    R. Hartman2 A
  2. ★★
    MIN
    J. Middleton1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    J. Brodin1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL11436013433
MINMIN2911136626

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. MIN
    Z. Bogosian(3)
    J. Middleton (9), R. Hartman (6)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    1:23
  2. MIN
    J. Merrill(1)
    J. Brodin (12)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-2
    2:12
  3. STL
    P. Buchnevich(10)
    D. Holloway (16), J. Faulk (12)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    13:26

2nd period

  1. STL
    J. Kyrou(18)PPG
    J. Faulk (13), D. Holloway (17)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-2
    1:24
  2. STL
    J. Neighbours(11)
    O. Sundqvist (4), Z. Bolduc (8)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    2:51
  3. STL
    R. Thomas(9)
    R. Suter (7), B. Saad (7)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-2
    4:33
  4. MIN
    J. Eriksson Ek(7)
    R. Hartman (7), M. Johansson (11)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-3
    9:41

3rd period

  1. MIN
    J. Middleton(6)
    M. Zuccarello (16)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +25 ptsVideo
    4-4
    1:16
  2. MIN
    M. Boldy(15)
    M. Zuccarello (17)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +26 ptsVideo
    4-5
    3:57
  3. MIN
    M. Johansson(5)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.45win prob +5 ptsVideo
    4-6
    19:24

Penalties

STL 0 PIM·MIN 2 PIM

2nd

  • 1:17MINJon Merrill · Trippingdrawn by Jordan Kyrou2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalSTL goalFinal: MIN 100%

Biggest swing: Matt Boldy, 3rd 3:57 — MIN 52% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Johansson · Goal · xG 0.45M. Boldy · Goal · xG 0.18B. Jones · Missed · xG 0.13M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.11J. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.10J. Middleton · Goal · xG 0.09F. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.09M. Rossi · On goal · xG 0.08M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.07M. Khusnutdinov · On goal · xG 0.07J. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rossi · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rossi · On goal · xG 0.06J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.06J. Eriksson Ek · Goal · xG 0.05J. Merrill · Goal · xG 0.05M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.05M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.04M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.03J. Merrill · Missed · xG 0.02B. Jones · Missed · xG 0.02J. Middleton · Missed · xG 0.02Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · Goal · xG 0.02D. Chisholm · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Bogosian · Missed · xG 0.01R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.01D. Chisholm · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brodin · Missed · xG 0.00D. Chisholm · On goal · xG 0.00D. Shore · On goal · xG 0.00M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.00M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.00
MIN6 G · 2.0 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsMIN
2.14 G
All situations
5 G2.0
1.63 G
Even strength
5 G1.6
0.51 G
Power play
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL60%40%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.02 – 1.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsMIN
33
Shots on goal
26
57%
Faceoffs
43%
1/1
Power play
0/0
0
Penalty minutes
2
31
Hits
29
12
Blocked shots
19
25
Giveaways
19
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55C. ParaykoD000-230.08220—24:15
72J. FaulkD022-330.10010—24:14
17C. FowlerD000-220.03140—23:38
89P. BuchnevichL101-320.38300—18:37
81D. HollowayL022-110.17200—18:10
10B. SchennC000-120.242003617:47
6P. BrobergD000-220.08100—17:43
18R. ThomasC101-420.220007317:39
25J. KyrouR101-240.12010—17:34
22R. SuterD011+210.05210—16:36
20B. SaadL011-320.05000—16:17
76Z. BolducR011+140.34110—13:50
26N. WalkerL000000.002007913:49
63J. NeighboursL101+110.123006713:20
13A. ToropchenkoR000000.00900—13:19
70O. SundqvistC011+110.012003012:28
75T. TuckerD000+220.06110—11:54
9A. TexierL000010.02010—11:34
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50J. Binnington(L)25205.8001.56-3.4457:16

Season series

MIN leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).