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Sabres at Lightning
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
FinalTV MSG-B, BSFL·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Cozens's goal at 5:08 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 43% to 60%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.4 to 3.5; shots on goal were BUF 34, TBL 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Eric Comrie stopped 31 of 33 (.939), 1.5 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Dylan Cozens (2 G, 1 A), 2. Eric Comrie (31 saves, .939), 3. Steven Stamkos (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    D. Cozens2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    E. Comrie31 saves, .939
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF1921619434
TBLTBL01617110233

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    D. Cozens(17)
    J. Quinn (9), B. Byram (18)
    wristxG 0.29win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:26

2nd period

  1. TBL
    S. Stamkos(40)
    N. Kucherov (99)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    2:27
  2. BUF
    D. Cozens(18)SHG
    J. Greenway (18)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    5:08
  3. BUF
    J. Greenway(10)
    Z. Girgensons (6), T. Jost (3)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    16:13

3rd period

  1. TBL
    E. Cernak(2)
    N. Paul (21)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +14 ptsVideo
    3-2
    9:39
  2. BUF
    Z. Benson(11)
    J. Quinn (10), D. Cozens (29)
    tip-inxG 0.20win prob +15 ptsVideo
    4-2
    9:54

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·TBL 4 PIM

1st

  • 18:34BUFJordan Greenway · Trippingdrawn by Anthony Duclair2 min

2nd

  • 4:45BUFRasmus Dahlin · Slashingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 10:24TBLTanner Jeannot · Slashingdrawn by Henri Jokiharju2 min

3rd

  • 1:00TBLEmil Lilleberg · Boardingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalBUF goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Dylan Cozens, 2nd 5:08 — BUF 43% → 60%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Point · On goal · xG 0.42B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.26B. Point · Missed · xG 0.21A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.18B. Point · Missed · xG 0.15A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.15A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.13A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.13S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.13B. Point · Missed · xG 0.12S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.12M. Chaffee · On goal · xG 0.12A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.10N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.09B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.09N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.07B. Point · On goal · xG 0.06S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.06B. Point · On goal · xG 0.06A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.05N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.05S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.05S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.05C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.04B. Point · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.03M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.03E. Cernak · Goal · xG 0.03B. Point · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.02M. Dumba · Missed · xG 0.02A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.01E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.01M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.01M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.00E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.00B. Point · Missed · xG 0.00D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.00E. Lilleberg · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL2 G · 3.5 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTBL
4.44 G
All situations
2 G3.5
3.03 G
Even strength
2 G3.0
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF51%49%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.45 – 3.40

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTBL
34
Shots on goal
33
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
13
Hits
18
12
Blocked shots
11
1
Giveaways
9
7
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
89A. TuchR000010.080205424:13
77J. PeterkaR000050.34000—23:11
26R. DahlinD000010.47102—22:23
4B. ByramD011+100.00310—21:02
75C. CliftonD000+110.01230—20:54
25O. PowerD000+120.23000—20:17
24D. CozensC213+380.900004320:15
12J. GreenwayL112+120.23102—18:19
10H. JokiharjuD000+100.00010—17:32
22J. QuinnR022+230.83100—16:57
9Z. BensonL101+240.56020—16:36
78J. BrysonD000000.00210—16:08
53J. SkinnerL000-130.33010—13:38
28Z. GirgensonsC011010.021104012:34
19P. KrebsC000-110.021005012:04
17T. JostC011010.231008008:45
71V. OlofssonL000-100.14000—08:01
72T. ThompsonC000010.020002003:11
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31E. Comrie(W)33312.9393.52+1.5260:00

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).