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Lightning at Sabres
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres

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Tampa Bay Lightning
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
Final/OTTV ESPN·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-2 in overtime, Dylan Cozens scoring at 1:46. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Cozens's goal at 1:46 of overtime, which took the Sabres' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.4 to 2.4; shots on goal were TBL 25, BUF 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Jonas Johansson stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.6 goals below expected; Devon Levi stopped 23 of 25 (.920), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Dylan Cozens (1 G), 2. Jeff Skinner (1 G), 3. Zemgus Girgensons (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    D. Cozens1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Skinner1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    Z. Girgensons1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TBLTBL081611100225
BUFBUF211090912331

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    Z. Girgensons(1)
    T. Jost (1), M. Samuelsson (1)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    8:57
  2. BUF
    J. Skinner(1)
    O. Power (2), A. Tuch (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    15:28

2nd period

  1. TBL
    B. Hagel(3)
    A. Cirelli (2), T. Jeannot (2)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    17:58

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Hagel(4)
    B. Point (4)
    wristxG 0.29win prob +44 ptsVideo
    2-2
    19:53

Overtime

  1. BUF
    D. Cozens(1)
    J. Greenway (1), R. Dahlin (2)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +49 ptsVideo
    2-3
    1:46

Penalties

TBL 11 PIM·BUF 13 PIM

1st

  • 5:33TBLConor Sheary · Holdingdrawn by Henri Jokiharju2 min
  • 6:09BUFAlex Tuch · Hookingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 19:08BUFRasmus Dahlin · Roughingdrawn by Austin Watson2 min
  • 19:08BUFZemgus Girgensons · Fightingdrawn by Austin Watson5 min
  • 19:08TBLAustin Watson · Fightingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons5 min

2nd

  • 3:00BUFCasey Mittelstadt · Holdingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 7:07TBLDarren Raddysh · Hookingdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min
  • 14:41BUFConnor Clifton · Cross checkingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

3rd

  • 10:01TBLAlex Barré-Boulet · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTBL goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Dylan Cozens, OT 1:46 — BUF 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.14D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.13K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.12O. Power · Missed · xG 0.12D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.12T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.12D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.11T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.10J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.09C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.09T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.09Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.09Z. Girgensons · Goal · xG 0.08A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.08J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.07T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.07J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.07J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.06J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.06D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.05H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.04H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.03J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.03J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.03A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.02C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.01J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.00T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 2.4 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsBUF
3.42 G
All situations
3 G2.4
1.62 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
1.60 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL65%35%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.28 – 2.44

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsBUF
25
Shots on goal
31
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/4
Power play
0/3
11
Penalty minutes
13
20
Hits
14
10
Blocked shots
12
7
Giveaways
6
4
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000+130.13010—28:19
21B. PointC011-140.621204426:26
98M. SergachevD000-120.14140—26:26
86N. KucherovR000+120.56000—25:57
43D. RaddyshD000-100.10002—23:06
38B. HagelL202+241.12200—19:54
71A. CirelliC011+110.052006918:02
81E. CernakD000000.00100—17:57
12A. Barré-BouletC000010.130025016:57
20N. PaulL000000.123002015:38
84T. JeannotL011-100.19400—14:44
73C. ShearyL000-110.08002—12:53
48N. PerbixD000030.08100—12:27
24Z. BogosianD000010.01200—11:37
23M. EyssimontC000-130.03010010:34
11L. GlendeningC000000.001205009:03
39W. MerelaC000000.00000005:49
51A. WatsonL000-100.08205—05:04
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31J. Johansson(O)31283.9032.45-0.5560:11

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).