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Lightning at Sabres
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres

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Tampa Bay Lightning
▸3
Buffalo Sabres
1
FinalTV MSG-B, BSSUN·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-1. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Cozens's goal at 13:52 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 15% to 32%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.2 to 2.0; shots on goal were TBL 16, BUF 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Jonas Johansson stopped 26 of 27 (.963), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 13 of 15 (.867). Three stars: 1. Tyler Motte (1 G), 2. Jonas Johansson (26 saves, .963), 3. Dylan Cozens (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    T. Motte1 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    J. Johansson26 saves, .963
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    D. Cozens1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL250912316
BUFBUF0616015127

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    N. Paul(12)
    B. Hagel (24), A. Cirelli (11)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    6:14
  2. TBL
    T. Motte(4)SHG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.14win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-0
    7:06

2nd period

  1. BUF
    D. Cozens(8)
    J. Peterka (15), R. Dahlin (24)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    13:52

3rd period

  1. TBL
    C. de Haan(3)EN
    B. Hagel (25), N. Paul (13)
    wristxG 0.51win prob +7 ptsVideo
    3-1
    18:44

Penalties

TBL 4 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

1st

  • 6:31TBLDarren Raddysh · Cross checkingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min

2nd

  • 7:28BUFRyan Johnson · Holdingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 16:18BUFAlex Tuch · Hookingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min

3rd

  • 11:56TBLMichael Eyssimont · Trippingdrawn by Jack Quinn2 min
  • 12:40BUFZach Benson · Slashingdrawn by Jonas Johansson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTBL goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Dylan Cozens, 2nd 13:52 — BUF 15% → 32%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.44J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.15J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.14A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.13D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.11C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.08K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.08V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.07O. Power · On goal · xG 0.07T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.06J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.05J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.04Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03O. Power · On goal · xG 0.03C. Clifton · Missed · xG 0.03K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.03O. Power · Missed · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.02V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.01D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.01R. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.01A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.01R. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.00D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF1 G · 2.0 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsBUF
3.22 G
All situations
1 G2.0
0.91 G
Even strength
1 G1.7
0.90 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.11 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL47%53%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.90 – 2.04

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsBUF
16
Shots on goal
27
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
16
Hits
18
13
Blocked shots
11
2
Giveaways
7
9
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43D. RaddyshD000+200.00312—25:31
77V. HedmanD000+210.12100—25:09
38B. HagelL022+220.60010—20:43
71A. CirelliC011+220.260004619:58
21B. PointC000-120.46010019:47
86N. KucherovR000-100.03000—19:23
48N. PerbixD000+110.00010—19:04
44C. de HaanD101+110.51230—18:34
91S. StamkosC000-110.270107018:33
20N. PaulL112+220.492005718:29
64T. MotteC101+110.141004314:32
78E. LillebergD000-100.00320—14:08
65M. CrozierD000-110.02200—13:32
73C. ShearyL000010.10000—12:40
23M. EyssimontC000010.13102011:28
11L. GlendeningC000+100.000105510:27
39W. MerelaC000000.00010007:29
51A. WatsonL000000.00110—06:36
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31J. Johansson(W)27261.9632.05+1.0559:57

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).