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Hurricanes at Islanders
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
New York Islanders
1
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the New York Islanders 4-1. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. The Hurricanes led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Seth Jarvis's goal at 14:53 of the first period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 61% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 2.9 to 2.0; shots on goal were CAR 34, NYI 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Ilya Sorokin stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Seth Jarvis (2 G), 2. Martin Necas (1 G), 3. Jake Guentzel (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    S. Jarvis2 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    M. Necas1 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    J. Guentzel1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR31401119434
NYINYI08011112131

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    S. Jarvis(24)
    B. Skjei (28), J. Guentzel (35)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-0
    12:48
  2. CAR
    S. Jarvis(25)
    J. Guentzel (36), J. Slavin (24)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    14:53
  3. CAR
    M. Necas(22)PPG
    E. Kuznetsov (14), B. Skjei (29)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +10 ptsVideo
    3-0
    19:58

3rd period

  1. NYI
    K. Palmieri(22)
    B. Nelson (30), B. Horvat (33)
    backhandxG 0.27win prob +6 ptsVideo
    3-1
    4:30
  2. CAR
    J. Guentzel(24)EN
    S. Aho (48)
    wristxG 0.63win prob +2 ptsVideo
    4-1
    16:22

Penalties

CAR 7 PIM·NYI 7 PIM

1st

  • 7:43CARMartin Necas · Holdingdrawn by Kyle MacLean2 min
  • 18:12NYIAdam Pelech · Interferencedrawn by Seth Jarvis2 min

3rd

  • 19:04NYIMatt Martin · Fightingdrawn by Brendan Lemieux5 min
  • 19:04CARBrendan Lemieux · Fightingdrawn by Matt Martin5 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalCAR goalFinal: NYI 0%

Biggest swing: Seth Jarvis, 1st 14:53 — CAR 61% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Palmieri · Goal · xG 0.27M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.21S. Holmstrom · On goal · xG 0.17H. Fasching · On goal · xG 0.17M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.13J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.13A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.11B. Horvat · Missed · xG 0.10B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.08K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.07M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.07A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.06B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.06R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.05H. Fasching · On goal · xG 0.05S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.04K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.03R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.03B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.02M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.02M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01M. Reilly · Missed · xG 0.01R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.01K. MacLean · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.01M. Reilly · Missed · xG 0.01N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.01N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.01N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.00K. MacLean · On goal · xG 0.00M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.00B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.00M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.00A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI1 G · 2.0 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsNYI
2.93 G
All situations
1 G2.0
1.82 G
Even strength
1 G1.7
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR54%46%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.19 – 1.99

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsNYI
34
Shots on goal
31
60%
Faceoffs
40%
1/1
Power play
0/1
7
Penalty minutes
7
15
Hits
20
13
Blocked shots
15
11
Giveaways
18
5
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
76B. SkjeiD022+220.17110—21:10
8B. BurnsD000020.05210—21:08
74J. SlavinD011010.02020—20:05
22B. PesceD000+220.01010—19:53
7D. OrlovD000010.01200—18:46
88M. NecasC101-140.381123317:49
20S. AhoC011+320.060005517:23
5J. ChatfieldD000030.08110—17:20
24S. JarvisR202+340.58200—17:02
59J. GuentzelC123+340.82000016:25
92E. KuznetsovC011-110.010103316:21
37A. SvechnikovR000-120.26010—15:19
48J. MartinookL000030.12030—14:49
71J. FastR000020.25000—14:49
82J. KotkaniemiC000000.001006714:05
11J. StaalC000000.000108612:44
28B. LemieuxL000010.01305—12:07
23S. NoesenR000000.002006710:45
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
52P. Kochetkov(W)31301.9682.04+1.0460:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).