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Islanders at Hurricanes
NHL

New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
▸5
Carolina Hurricanes
4
Final/OTTV ESPN+, HULU·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Carolina Hurricanes 5-4 in overtime, Mathew Barzal scoring at 2:46. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Islanders led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mathew Barzal's goal at 2:46 of overtime, which took the Islanders' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 4.2 to 3.0; shots on goal were NYI 16, CAR 43. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 39 of 43 (.907); Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 11 of 16 (.688), 2.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Semyon Varlamov (39 saves, .907), 2. Mathew Barzal (1 G, 3 A), 3. Jordan Staal (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    S. Varlamov39 saves, .907
  2. ★★
    NYI
    M. Barzal1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    J. Staal1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
NYINYI17231412516
CARCAR11211521501443

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    J. Chatfield(2)
    M. Bunting (10), D. Orlov (8)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    8:08
  2. NYI
    B. Horvat(7)
    M. Barzal (14), A. Lee (3)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    18:00

2nd period

  1. CAR
    J. Staal(2)
    J. Martinook (6), J. Slavin (9)
    snapxG 0.29win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-2
    2:01
  2. NYI
    S. Holmstrom(6)SHG
    J. Pageau (7)
    backhandxG 0.19win prob +22 ptsVideo
    2-2
    15:59
  3. NYI
    P. Engvall(2)
    M. Barzal (15), N. Dobson (14)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +23 ptsVideo
    3-2
    18:03

3rd period

  1. CAR
    J. Drury(2)
    S. Noesen (7), M. Necas (9)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +24 ptsVideo
    3-3
    0:39
  2. NYI
    K. Palmieri(6)PPG
    N. Dobson (15), M. Barzal (16)
    backhandxG 0.75win prob +25 ptsVideo
    4-3
    6:41
  3. CAR
    S. Aho(6)
    J. Staal (6), B. Burns (5)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +46 ptsVideo
    4-4
    19:57

Overtime

  1. NYI
    M. Barzal(7)
    N. Dobson (16)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +51 ptsVideo
    5-4
    2:46

Penalties

NYI 6 PIM·CAR 8 PIM

1st

  • 11:11NYIPierre Engvall · Hookingdrawn by Jesperi Kotkaniemi2 min
  • 11:37CARSeth Jarvis · Hookingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min

2nd

  • 15:01NYIMike Reilly · Interferencedrawn by Jesperi Kotkaniemi2 min

3rd

  • 5:11CARJordan Staal · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 6:41CARserved by A. Svechnikov · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 13:30CARserved by M. Bunting · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 14:09NYIBrock Nelson · Trippingdrawn by Seth Jarvis2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalNYI goalFinal: CAR 0%

Biggest swing: Mathew Barzal, OT 2:46 — NYI 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.35J. Staal · Goal · xG 0.29S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.25B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.22J. Chatfield · Goal · xG 0.19J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.15J. Drury · Goal · xG 0.15J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.12D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.12M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.12J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.11J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.11M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.09J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.09B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.09S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.08J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.08M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.07M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.07B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.07J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.06S. Noesen · On goal · xG 0.06B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.06M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.05D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.05J. Fast · Missed · xG 0.05J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.05S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.05J. Kotkaniemi · Missed · xG 0.05A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.05S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.04A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.04J. Kotkaniemi · Missed · xG 0.04M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.04T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.04S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.04J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.04B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.04J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.04M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.04T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.03B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.03J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.03M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.03A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.03S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.02B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.02A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.02J. Drury · Missed · xG 0.02M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.02B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.02M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.02J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.02B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.02S. Noesen · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.01J. Kotkaniemi · Missed · xG 0.01M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.01J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.01B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.01B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.01
CAR4 G · 4.2 xG · 65 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsCAR
3.05 G
All situations
4 G4.2
1.33 G
Even strength
4 G2.9
0.91 G
Power play
0 G1.1
0.31 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI23%77%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.39 – 4.13

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsCAR
16
Shots on goal
43
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/4
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
22
Hits
15
31
Blocked shots
10
7
Giveaways
8
10
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8N. DobsonD033020.03030—27:06
28A. RomanovD000-100.00020—24:30
6R. PulockD000+100.02450—22:27
14B. HorvatC101+120.732103821:15
13M. BarzalC134+220.33120020:56
24S. MayfieldD000000.00030—19:44
21K. PalmieriC101-230.9101010018:48
29B. NelsonC000010.131125618:09
18P. EngvallL101020.21002—16:43
53C. CizikasC000-100.001204615:32
27A. LeeL011-110.11340—15:27
44J. PageauC011010.080106214:39
15C. ClutterbuckR000000.0431010013:58
2M. ReillyD000-110.04002—13:05
4S. BolducD000000.00520—12:19
16J. GauthierR000000.12210—10:50
10S. HolmstromR101010.2601010008:36
26O. WahlstromR000-100.0001010008:14
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40S. Varlamov(W)43394.9074.16+0.1662:46

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).