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Predators at Blues
NHL

Nashville Predators at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸5
St. Louis Blues
2
FinalTV BSSO, BSMW·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the St. Louis Blues 5-2. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Luke Evangelista's goal at 13:09 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 47% to 67%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 3.4 to 2.8; shots on goal were NSH 33, STL 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Jordan Binnington stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Filip Forsberg (1 G, 1 A), 2. Juuse Saros (35 saves, .946), 3. Colton Sissons (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    J. Saros35 saves, .946
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    C. Sissons1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH18112313533
STLSTL11201619237

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    C. Sissons(14)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.04win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    4:11
  2. STL
    J. Kyrou(19)PPG
    R. Thomas (42), T. Krug (26)
    snapxG 0.26win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    19:05

2nd period

  1. NSH
    L. Evangelista(10)
    J. Lauzon (4)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +20 ptsVideo
    2-1
    13:09

3rd period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(26)PPG
    R. Josi (39), R. O'Reilly (27)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    3-1
    6:48
  2. NSH
    L. Schenn(1)
    R. McDonagh (13), K. Sherwood (7)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +5 ptsVideo
    4-1
    7:51
  3. STL
    N. Walker(5)
    K. Hayes (12), N. Leddy (18)
    deflectedxG 0.23win prob +2 ptsVideo
    4-2
    12:52
  4. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(20)EN
    G. Nyquist (30), F. Forsberg (29)
    wristxG 0.59Video
    5-2
    18:28

Penalties

NSH 8 PIM·STL 8 PIM

1st

  • 14:33STLAlexey Toropchenko · Interferencedrawn by Alexandre Carrier2 min
  • 17:07NSHYakov Trenin · Boardingdrawn by Alexey Toropchenko2 min
  • 17:46NSHJeremy Lauzon · High stickingdrawn by Jake Neighbours2 min

2nd

  • 17:46NSHCody Glass · Hookingdrawn by Kevin Hayes2 min
  • 19:00NSHLuke Schenn · Ps holding on breakawaydrawn by Jake Neighbours0 min

3rd

  • 6:18STLSammy Blais · Interferencedrawn by Jeremy Lauzon2 min
  • 8:19NSHJeremy Lauzon · Roughingdrawn by Alexey Toropchenko2 min
  • 10:17STLOskar Sundqvist · Interferencedrawn by Colton Sissons2 min
  • 19:16STLJordan Binnington · High stickingdrawn by Luke Evangelista2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalNSH goalFinal: STL 0%

Biggest swing: Luke Evangelista, 2nd 13:09 — NSH 47% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.26J. Kyrou · Goal · xG 0.26N. Walker · Goal · xG 0.23B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.16B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.15J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.14B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.12P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.12R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.11J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.11P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.10B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.09J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.08J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.08K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.08J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.08R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.07B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.07K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.07J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.07A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.06P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.06J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.06J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.06B. Saad · Missed · xG 0.06C. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.05B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.05K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.05K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.05B. Saad · Missed · xG 0.04M. Kessel · On goal · xG 0.04B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.03R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.03T. Krug · On goal · xG 0.03C. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.03K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.03N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.02M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.02M. Kessel · On goal · xG 0.02C. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.02M. Kessel · On goal · xG 0.02A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.01C. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.01T. Krug · On goal · xG 0.01R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.01O. Sundqvist · Missed · xG 0.01N. Walker · On goal · xG 0.01N. Walker · Missed · xG 0.01M. Kessel · Missed · xG 0.01K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.01T. Krug · Missed · xG 0.00M. Kessel · On goal · xG 0.00
STL2 G · 3.4 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsSTL
2.84 G
All situations
2 G3.4
1.73 G
Even strength
1 G1.8
0.51 G
Power play
1 G1.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH30%70%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.15 – 3.31

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsSTL
33
Shots on goal
37
60%
Faceoffs
40%
1/4
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
28
Hits
23
17
Blocked shots
14
4
Giveaways
6
6
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27R. McDonaghD011+210.05010—22:38
59R. JosiD011030.19000—22:17
90R. O'ReillyC112+120.620105919:40
3J. LauzonD011+110.04824—18:55
45A. CarrierD000+320.16230—18:12
2L. SchennD101010.02500—17:32
10C. SissonsC101+210.071207117:25
57D. FabbroD000040.10110—17:09
47M. McCarronC000-120.201005516:15
9F. ForsbergL112+130.12020—15:50
14G. NyquistR011+100.00120—14:55
36C. SmithR000020.07200—14:48
13Y. TreninC000+160.53402013:52
77L. EvangelistaR101+110.10010—13:33
44K. SherwoodL011010.16300—13:27
8C. GlassC000+120.2901210012:48
17M. JankowskiL000+100.000006712:28
82T. NovakC000+110.080102510:18
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(W)37352.9463.38+1.3860:00

Season series

NSH leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).