Lightning at Flyers 6-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Tampa Bay Lightning

▸6

Philadelphia Flyers

FinalTV NBCSP, BSSUN·Wells Fargo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Philadelphia Flyers 6-3. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jamie Drysdale's goal at 14:04 of the second period, which took the Flyers' chances from 15% to 32%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.4 to 2.1; shots on goal were TBL 21, PHI 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 32 (.906), 0.9 goals below expected; Samuel Ersson stopped 15 of 19 (.789), 2.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (3 G, 1 A), 2. Brayden Point (1 G, 1 A), 3. Cam Atkinson (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
N. Kucherov3 G, 1 A
★★
B. Point1 G, 1 A
★★★
C. Atkinson1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	25	28	28	621
PHI	07	214	111	332

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

B. Point(22)
M. Crozier (1)
tip-inxG 0.09win prob +12 ptsVideo
1-0
1:46
N. Kucherov(29)
B. Hagel (26), D. Raddysh (13)
slapxG 0.15win prob +15 ptsVideo
2-0
18:45

2nd period

N. Kucherov(30)PPG
B. Point (28), S. Stamkos (24)
snapxG 0.17win prob +9 ptsVideo
3-0
2:24
C. Atkinson(13)
J. Farabee (23), S. Walker (12)
tip-inxG 0.11win prob +10 ptsVideo
3-1
9:56
J. Drysdale(2)PPG
M. Frost (14), C. Atkinson (15)
wristxG 0.06win prob +17 ptsVideo
3-2
14:04
M. Eyssimont(8)PPG
N. Kucherov (49), V. Hedman (37)
wristxG 0.24win prob +15 ptsVideo
4-2
17:42

3rd period

C. York(6)
M. Frost (15)
batxG 0.14win prob +14 ptsVideo
4-3
0:42
B. Hagel(14)EN
A. Cirelli (12), C. de Haan (4)
wristxG 0.94win prob +5 ptsVideo
5-3
19:00
N. Kucherov(31)EN
A. Cirelli (13), N. Perbix (15)
wristxG 0.58Video
6-3
19:49

Penalties

6 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

6:35Anthony Cirelli · Trippingdrawn by Cam Atkinson2 min
16:43Rasmus Ristolainen · Trippingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min

2nd

1:36Sean Walker · Holdingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
12:19Brandon Hagel · Hookingdrawn by Morgan Frost2 min
16:11Cam Atkinson · Hookingdrawn by Conor Sheary2 min
20:00Victor Hedman · Roughingdrawn by Travis Sanheim2 min
20:00Travis Sanheim · Roughingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: PHI

Biggest swing: Jamie Drysdale, 2nd 14:04 — PHI 15% → 32%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 2.1 xG · 53 att

←

attacks

attacks →

6 G · 3.4 xG · 29 att PHI

3 G · 2.1 xG · 53 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.44 G
All situations: 3 G2.1; 1.52 G
Even strength: 2 G1.7; 0.42 G
Power play: 1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

45%55%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.88 – 2.11

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

21
Shots on goal: 32; 44%
Faceoffs: 56%; 2/3
Power play: 1/2; 6
Penalty minutes: 8; 13
Hits: 17; 17
Blocked shots: 23; 3
Giveaways: 2; 7
Takeaways: 12

Box score

every player line

Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
77V. HedmanD	0	1	1	0	1	0.08	0	2	2	—	24:54
86N. KucherovR	3	1	4	+3	5	0.97	2	1	0	—	24:36
21B. PointC	1	1	2	-1	1	0.30	0	0	0	0	20:21
38B. HagelL	1	1	2	+2	3	1.03	1	0	2	100	19:34
48N. PerbixD	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0	3	0	—	19:13
71A. CirelliC	0	2	2	+3	1	0.25	1	1	2	56	19:00
91S. StamkosC	0	1	1	-1	2	0.09	0	2	0	30	18:26
44C. de HaanD	0	1	1	0	0	0.04	2	3	0	—	18:03
43D. RaddyshD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	17:03
78E. LillebergD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	16:38
20N. PaulL	0	0	0	0	1	0.20	0	0	0	42	14:45
23M. EyssimontC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.25	0	0	0	0	14:34
64T. MotteC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	0	0	0	100	14:17
65M. CrozierD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.02	2	2	0	—	14:03
11L. GlendeningC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	36	13:38
73C. ShearyL	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	0	2	0	—	10:16
12A. Barré-BouletC	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	0	0	0	0	08:57
5P. MyersD	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	1	1	0	—	05:57

Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)	32	29	3	.906	2.11	-0.89	60:00

Season series

TBL leads 2-1

Jan 236@3this game
Feb 272@6Final
Mar 90@7Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score