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Lightning at Red Wings
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
4
Detroit Red Wings
▸7
FinalTV BSDETX, BSSUN·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-4. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Elmer Soderblom's goal at 3:48 of the third period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 52% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 3.8 to 3.1; shots on goal were TBL 38, DET 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Brian Elliott stopped 24 of 29 (.828), 2.8 goals below expected; Ville Husso stopped 34 of 38 (.895), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Dylan Larkin (2 G, 1 A), 2. Michael Rasmussen (2 G, 2 A), 3. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    D. Larkin2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DET
    M. Rasmussen2 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL217111110438
DETDET2151848731

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(17)
    N. Kucherov (36), E. Cernak (6)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    1:29
  2. DET
    O. Maatta(3)
    P. Suter (6)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    15:34
  3. TBL
    A. Killorn(9)
    R. Colton (7), N. Perbix (5)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    18:38
  4. DET
    M. Rasmussen(5)
    B. Chiarot (6), O. Sundqvist (8)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    2-2
    19:32

2nd period

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(11)
    D. Perron (14), M. Rasmussen (8)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +19 pts
    2-3
    11:08
  2. TBL
    R. Colton(8)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.18win prob +20 pts
    3-3
    13:15

3rd period

  1. DET
    E. Soderblom(4)
    J. Veleno (5)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +26 pts
    3-4
    3:48
  2. DET
    D. Larkin(12)
    M. Rasmussen (9)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +14 pts
    3-5
    9:46
  3. TBL
    N. Kucherov(13)
    V. Hedman (17), S. Stamkos (22)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +7 pts
    4-5
    16:13
  4. DET
    D. Perron(11)EN
    D. Larkin (19)
    wristxG 0.66win prob +6 pts
    4-6
    17:27
  5. DET
    M. Rasmussen(6)EN
    D. Perron (15)
    wristxG 0.95
    4-7
    18:59

Penalties

TBL 10 PIM·DET 14 PIM

1st

  • 3:03DETJoseph Veleno · Illegal check to headdrawn by Pierre-Edouard Bellemare2 min
  • 3:10DETBen Chiarot · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 6:23TBLIan Cole · Holdingdrawn by Adam Erne2 min
  • 19:32DETMichael Rasmussen · Slashingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min
  • 19:32TBLNick Paul · Slashingdrawn by Michael Rasmussen2 min

2nd

  • 7:17DETDominik Kubalik · Hookingdrawn by Nick Perbix2 min
  • 15:39TBLAlex Killorn · Slashingdrawn by Michael Rasmussen2 min
  • 20:00DETOlli Maatta · Roughingdrawn by Nick Perbix2 min

3rd

  • 13:00TBLMikhail Sergachev · Roughingdrawn by Moritz Seider2 min
  • 13:00DETMoritz Seider · Roughingdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev2 min
  • 18:59TBLAlex Killorn · Slashingdrawn by Jake Walman2 min
  • 18:59DETJake Walman · Slashingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTBL goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Elmer Soderblom, 3rd 3:48 — DET 52% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rasmussen · Goal · xG 0.95D. Perron · Goal · xG 0.65E. Soderblom · Goal · xG 0.23P. Suter · Missed · xG 0.22O. Maatta · Goal · xG 0.17D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.15O. Sundqvist · On goal · xG 0.14M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.14M. Rasmussen · Missed · xG 0.13D. Kubalik · Missed · xG 0.11B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.10O. Sundqvist · On goal · xG 0.10P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rasmussen · Goal · xG 0.07A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.06J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.05D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.04O. Maatta · Missed · xG 0.04D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.04D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.03D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.02J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.02D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.02M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.02M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.02D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.02D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.02D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.01J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.00B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.00B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.00D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.00
DET7 G · 3.8 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsDET
3.14 G
All situations
5 G3.8
1.94 G
Even strength
5 G1.7
1.20 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL67%33%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.09 – 2.11

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsDET
38
Shots on goal
31
62%
Faceoffs
38%
0/4
Power play
0/2
10
Penalty minutes
14
17
Hits
18
14
Blocked shots
18
3
Giveaways
5
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
21B. PointC101040.400105522:38
81E. CernakD011+120.07100—21:29
98M. SergachevD000-220.05032—21:29
86N. KucherovR112-130.16010—20:52
91S. StamkosC011-260.630005720:05
77V. HedmanD011-320.15200—20:00
28I. ColeD000+210.01212—17:46
38B. HagelL000-110.12000—17:17
48N. PerbixD011-100.01200—16:25
20N. PaulL000-220.091425815:13
52C. FooteD000-200.00300—15:00
71A. CirelliC000000.001006714:44
17A. KillornL101-150.35124—14:28
10C. PerryR000-210.06010—12:39
90V. NamestnikovC000-120.1801010011:48
79R. ColtonC112+150.622003311:06
14P. MaroonL000-120.22200—09:57
41P. BellemareL000-100.000008608:57
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1B. Elliott(L)29245.8282.16-2.8459:06

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).